Market Review

In our previous analysis, we provided a very accurate reference for the future trend of the market. Firstly, we suggested that Bitcoin's current price near 66,000 RMB should prioritize resistance at the 68,000 RMB level. The market also cooperated well, moving upwards to reach the 68,500 RMB resistance level before encountering resistance and experiencing a slight pullback. This easily secured a space of over 2,000 points for the next round. This also aligns with our view on the future market, that encountering resistance would lead to a pullback. Although the current decline in coin price may not be satisfactory, the resistance has already provided a clear indication for the future market direction.

Intraday Analysis

Yesterday evening, the announcement of the US non-farm payroll data, as expected, was bearish. This did not come as a surprise and has further strengthened our decision to prioritize a bearish view within the cycle. After all, recent employment and economic data affected by seasonal factors cannot raise greater expectations for the bulls. As a result of the unexpectedly bearish announcement, the FOMC will also be more cautious in making interest rate decisions for the year, so we should lower our expectations for the bulls in the short term.

Looking back at the market, we have perfectly grasped this round of upward expectations. The corresponding trend also makes the future market clearer. Currently, Bitcoin is being suppressed by the MA60 line on the 4-hour chart, and the daily chart continues to fail to break through the short-term trend line. The downward trend on the weekly K-line also continues. Therefore, our future strategy will continue to focus on the bearish layout based on the resistance above, as mentioned earlier. We will still focus on placing short positions near 68,000 RMB, but we also need to consider the possibility of an early activation due to the upcoming halving. In this case, we just need to be prepared to defend the previous high and consider a reverse position if it is broken.

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