Click to watch the video: Master Chen's 3.27 Video: Analysis of the Bull Market Top and DOGE's Three-Week Eruption?

Today in the video, we will discuss the potential need to modify the profit-taking and closing plan for long-term buy orders at the bottom of 15,000 or 25,000, as there was a plan previously that Bitcoin's top may be at the end of 2024.

Including observing the monthly MACD, which has already shown 7 consecutive columns, something that has never been seen in Bitcoin's history. For friends holding long-term buy orders for Dogecoin, when should they consider closing their positions.

First, let's look at the Bitcoin weekly chart. Historically, whenever Bitcoin breaks through its historical high, we need to consider how much longer it may continue to rise. As I mentioned earlier, the MACD on the monthly chart has shown 7 consecutive columns, something that has never been seen in Bitcoin's history, with continuous large increases for 7 months.

Of course, the current environment is different, whether it's ETFs, the upcoming Bitcoin halving, or the future Fed rate cuts. But I believe that in the trading market, it cannot always rise. There will be a top someday. So let's take a look at Bitcoin's historical bull markets.

We can look at Bitcoin's rise in 2019 or around November 2020. At that time, Bitcoin broke through its historical high, and from that breakthrough, it rose to a high of 69,000 in 2020 to 2021. Bitcoin broke through its historical high and continued to rise for 329 days. Of course, the process was not smooth, and there were significant pullbacks.

Or we can look at Bitcoin's bull market in 2015. It rose from the bottom to around March 2017. At that time, it broke through its historical high, but there was a significant decline of nearly 35% at that point.

Then we can calculate from the point of breaking through the historical high to the top in 2017, which took 280 days. Of course, there were also some medium-term pullbacks during the rise.

So through the Bitcoin weekly chart, or as I have considered before, whether the top of Bitcoin may be in December 2024, we can observe that this time Bitcoin broke through the historical high of 69,000.

If we follow the 2015 to 2017 bull market, if it rises for another 280 days after breaking the historical high, we can observe that this time would be December 2024. Because I have mentioned in previous videos that Bitcoin generally rises in the bull market cycle, especially the time of the top often occurs in November or December. For example, the top of 69,000 was in November 2021, or the top at that time in 2017 also occurred in December.

So let's take a look at the MACD indicator on the monthly chart of Bitcoin. This time, Bitcoin has been continuously rising for 7 months on the monthly chart. As I mentioned in a previous video, when the MACD columns at the bottom reach around 7, we need to be careful. For example, at the bottom in 2019, the MACD continuously declined for 7 columns, which was the bottom of Bitcoin in 2019.

Or we can look at the bottom in 2015, where the MACD continuously declined for 7 columns, which was the bottom in 2015. Then we can refer to Bitcoin's bull market in 2015 and count the MACD columns in 2015. Generally, when there are 6 to 7 columns, we need to pay attention to whether there will be two columns of decline like this, or after 5 to 6 columns appear, there will be one column of decline. Then we can count again, and Bitcoin continued to rise to the top, which was also a continuous rise of 9 green columns, possibly the top of Bitcoin.

So we can take a look at the current MACD columns of Bitcoin, including the fact that as I mentioned earlier, there has never been a continuous 7-month rise on the monthly chart in history. We need to observe whether there will be a consolidation for two months or a significant pullback before and after the halving of Bitcoin.

We need to consider from June to December, if it continues to rise for another 6 months, whether it is possible to reach around 100,000 to 150,000 US dollars, or in December this year, I will plan whether to close all long-term buy orders.

Then let's take a look at the Dogecoin weekly chart. After the trend breakthrough in 2023, it retraced at this point, similar to the position in 2020. After a trend breakthrough lasting two years, there was also a retracement. Is it possible that it will immediately break through 0.2 in the short term?

I personally think it is possible because we can observe the rise in 2020. The structure of Dogecoin's consolidation is generally around three weeks. After three weeks of consolidation, it starts to rise from the low point and then begins to erupt.

So is it possible for the current three-week consolidation to occur in the next one or two weeks? In addition, we also need to pay attention to whether Bitcoin will not have a significant pullback. Is it possible that Dogecoin will have a major eruption in the short term, as it did at this position in 2020?

If Bitcoin will have a higher high at the end of this year, then we need to observe whether Dogecoin may peak in the first half of 2025, or if Dogecoin reaches around $1, then friends holding long positions need to consider closing their positions.

Candlesticks are king, trends are emperor. I am Master Chen, focusing on BTC, ETH spot and futures contracts for many years. There is no 100% method, only 100% following the trend. Daily updates on macro analysis articles and technical analysis review videos across the web! Friendly reminder: This article is only written by Master Chen in the public account (as shown in the picture above). The end of the article and other advertisements in the comments section are not related to the author. Please be cautious in distinguishing between true and false. Thank you for reading.

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