Click to watch the video: Master Chen's 3.11 Video: Be Careful of Bullish News, Mainstream Forces Digging a Pit in Reverse, Market Reference to Gold History?

So in today's video, we will discuss the next buying point for Bitcoin long or doing long with everyone from the bottom at the end of last year, and the profit I am currently holding. However, there are also some new friends who want to do long on Bitcoin again.

But I have been very cautious about the recent Bitcoin futures contracts, basically only making one or two stable layouts every day. I also did not participate in the Dogecoin futures trading. So today, I will use the trend of gold ETF after its listing to judge the current situation of Bitcoin or Dogecoin, including what we need to pay attention to when the CPI is announced in the United States tomorrow.

First, let's look at the Bitcoin weekly level. From the high point of around 49,000 when the spot ETF was listed last time, the manipulators dug a pit afterwards. Then let's observe the range of this box, which is roughly calculated from the low point near 40,000, rising to about 70,000 US dollars. The current space has increased by nearly 70%.

So we look at the upward space of Bitcoin, or a phrase I often say, "Risk comes with the rise." Although the long-term view is still bullish because the entire market knows that Bitcoin is about to face a halving of production, we also need to think in reverse. Is it possible that the main force will do the opposite at this position where the space is at a short-term or medium-term high?

Including the CPI to be announced in the United States tomorrow with a predicted value of 3.1, we need to consider that the last time there was also good news at the position of the ETF listing, but I also want to remind everyone that good news is not necessarily good, because at that time, when it broke through 25,000 or 30,000, I also mentioned that the ETF might really be listed later.

Because the entire market is in a haze, it is possible that the news is looming. Only when the situation of whether it will be listed or not is confirmed, the entire market may be speculated. After rising to a high point, when the news is confirmed, there may be a short-term washout. So currently, I think we still need to look at the space. When the price rises to a high point, or whether the CPI is good or bad tomorrow is not very important, including the imminent halving of Bitcoin production, I think it is not important either, or the United States will announce interest rate decisions this month. We should focus on the space. It is possible that the price has risen too much at the current position, and Bitcoin may consolidate or oscillate in a box at this position, and then we will see if there is a low point to do long again.

Because we can observe the weekly level of gold. After the listing of the gold ETF in 2004, we can see that there is a low point in this box range, roughly calculated from this position, and it rose to the high point later. Similarly, the space also increased by nearly 70%.

Then we can observe that the high point of gold was about $730 per ounce. Later, in the weekly chart, it also continued to fall for 5 consecutive candlesticks. It is possible that at this kind of low point of decline, we can observe that it is testing the previous support. Such low points are very important buying points. Or after the low point, if there is an increase, and there is no immediate continuation of a 50% or one to two times rise, it will continue to wash out and oscillate in this area. We can observe the time inside, from the high point to the consolidation later, it was roughly about 450 days. Now I am also thinking whether Bitcoin has risen too much after the halving of production, or whether it will continue to consolidate for two to three months before and after the halving, and it may continue to rise later.

And we can also observe the consolidation that occurred after gold rose by 70% at this position in history, or the entire long-term trend later, it continued to rise by who knows how many times.

So back to the Bitcoin weekly level, my view is still the same, the space has risen too much, we should try to observe whether it will decline at this position in the short-term level, or whether it will consolidate in a box range at this position in the medium-term. Especially in the daily chart, we should observe whether it cannot produce a bearish engulfing again today.

Then let's take a look at the Dogecoin daily level. The current focus is that 0.16 should not be broken, because just now we judged that Bitcoin may consolidate, and Dogecoin is the same. If you want to do long at the low point, I personally think that it is currently not likely to fall below this position. But the space has already risen so much now. If you still want to find a point to do long on Dogecoin, it is not easy to judge now.

Because if you do long at this position, or even if it falls to this position to do long, there is space in the short term, but there may not be a lot of space. We need to pay attention that it may not necessarily be a converging triangle structure at this position, and we will see if it may consolidate into a box range later.

Then we can see that Dogecoin also had a bullish flag at this position in 2021. After the consolidation here, it continued to rise later. It feels like a converging triangle at this position, but it may take a long time. It may continue to erupt later.

So whether it's Dogecoin or Bitcoin, if you still want to do medium to long-term, I think you can only wait for now to see if it is still consolidating in a box range. So recently, I still focus on the short-term contract in the member channel. Once there is a new medium to long-term layout, I will update the video to inform all fans and friends as soon as possible.

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Candlestick is king, trend is emperor. I am Master Chen, focusing on BTC, ETH spot and futures for many years. There is no 100% method, only 100% follow the trend. I update macro analysis articles and technical analysis review videos daily across the entire network. Friendly reminder: Only the public account of the column (as shown in the picture above) is written by Master Chen. The advertisements at the end of the article and in the comments section are not related to the author. Please distinguish between true and false carefully. Thank you for reading.

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