Whether it's investing or trading, one's perspective should be broad. Always focusing on one market will make traders think that every rise and fall is the whole world, and that missing an opportunity means losing tomorrow. Bitcoin has led the blockchain market for the past year, especially in the past month with a significant rise. If your focus is only on the blockchain market, then you must believe that the rise of Bitcoin is mainly due to ETFs and the upcoming halving. Although I do not deny these factors, how do we explain the simultaneous rise of gold, US stocks, and the Nikkei and other securities markets?

If they are not closely related, and Bitcoin maintains an independent trend, then there is nothing to discuss. However, in reality, when Bitcoin was added as an investment option for hedge funds, when Bitcoin was added to CEM, and when Coinbase landed on NASDAQ, Bitcoin has become part of an interconnected chain.

If there is any connection between them, then the recent trends in some financial markets last week may have a significant impact on Bitcoin's trend. On March 6th, the Egyptian pound plummeted by 40%, although this sharp drop was the official exchange rate set by the government, as a condition for Egypt to obtain an IMF loan. On March 8th, Biden announced plans to establish a temporary port in Gaza. On March 10th, Nvidia's market value evaporated by $128.5 billion, leading to a decline in the chip and semiconductor industry. At the same time, the Nikkei 225 index also fell significantly, signaling the end of this round of growth. Gold hit a historical high, Bitcoin hit a historical high, the Nikkei hit a new high, and the Nasdaq hit a historical high… What is going on?

New highs are not scary, what's scary is whether they can be broken through. From observing various securities and futures over the past few years, breaking through a new high does not necessarily trigger an unstoppable trend, but rather a reversal. Only after a deep retracement, the next breakthrough is possible, forming an effective breakthrough. Of course, this is just a historical statistic and cannot represent the result of the next breakthrough.

So let's observe the details. Due to work requirements, I need to check a large number of individual stocks in the Japanese market. What is unsettling is that the previously significantly rising Japanese stocks almost all formed a top consolidation pattern last week. Although consolidation does not represent a reversal, it is this step that makes people feel that the risk may be approaching. As for Bitcoin, after reaching a historical high on March 5th, it immediately fell by 15%. If it is possible to consume profits through a long period of consolidation, there may be even greater potential. However, Bitcoin chose to reach a new high again 3 days later, breaking through 70,000. Prices that have not undergone sufficient consolidation are usually difficult to maintain, so it immediately dropped by 6%. Although there is currently no sign of a right-side top, it is still precarious at such heights.

There are intricate connections between the world's financial markets, and it is difficult to analyze the events mentioned above together. There is a lot of information and intelligence that we do not have, and it is unclear what kind of chemical reaction will occur when all these events are put together, but it always feels like a butterfly has already flapped its wings. Nvidia's sharp decline may be related to the accumulated rise and the expiration of futures contracts, but aren't the quarterly futures contract expirations for many markets in March?

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