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William of the Federal Reserve: It may cut interest rates later this year, and raising interest rates is not my base case. The market's unanimous expectation for rate cuts has been adjusted from March to June this year, but even so, Fed officials are not buying it. Some officials believe that the rate cut should be delayed for another 2 months on the basis of June.

If we follow this logic, it is bearish for the market in the short term, and the macro market's decline in crude oil and others is also due to this reason, so we need to closely monitor the Fed's movements. However, I personally believe that the impact on the cryptocurrency market is not that significant.

Last week, BlackRock's Bitcoin spot ETF holdings exceeded 130,000 coins, and the quantity is still steadily increasing. Grayscale's GBTC quantity has decreased to 445,000 coins, and the declining trend is gradually easing. In addition, all ETFs have received a total inflow of over $230 million, and Grayscale's outflow data has reached a historical low.

The balance of institutional holdings has been broken for some time, and even though the buying momentum has slowed down, it cannot withstand the surge of off-market funds brought about by the high emotions in the later market.

In the current environment, the market is gradually approaching the historical abyss of 312 (old retail investors are very profound), but it is not expected to see a major market crash similar to 312. In the current market sentiment, it is difficult to have a bigger black swan event than last year's Silicon Valley bank collapse in the short term, so it is difficult to change the trend of the big market.

In addition, Ethereum will undergo the London upgrade on March 13, and will remain strong in the long term thereafter. The bearish expectations for Ethereum will be after May, and Ethereum will remain strong in the short term. Major platforms are launching staking mining businesses, which is what a bull market should look like. In the short term, mainstream sectors will maintain a volatile market, and ETH and BTC are bullish in the long term.

Ethereum rose to $3141 in the market debate this morning, refreshing a new high in 2024. Many people are fiercely debating whether the Ethereum spot ETF can be approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), and many people assert that it is simply impossible to be approved.

However, as the London upgrade of Ethereum on March 13 approaches, the expectation for the Ethereum spot ETF. Whales and institutions are constantly hoarding Ethereum, and Bernstein predicts that the likelihood of the Ethereum spot ETF being approved in May is about 50%, and it is almost certain to be approved in the next 12 months.

Many traditional financial institutions are vying for Ethereum ETFs in the United States, which has raised the mid-term outlook for this token. Franklin Templeton, BlackRock, and Fidelity's Bitcoin ETFs have already been approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, and they have also submitted applications for Ethereum ETFs. I said a long time ago that the cryptocurrency market is driven by news and expectations.

From a narrative perspective, Ethereum currently has two major driving factors, one is the wave of spot ETF applications, and the other is the upcoming London upgrade. At this stage, the most important thing is undoubtedly the ETF that can attract traditional funds into the market.

Looking at Bitcoin, since the approval of 11 Bitcoin spot ETFs, despite a short period of profit-taking, with institutional support, over $5.2 billion has flowed into the Bitcoin ETF market.

It is precisely because of the successful experience of Bitcoin ETFs that the narrative of Ethereum ETFs has also attracted widespread attention. As of now, in addition to Grayscale applying for a convertible spot ETF in its original trust, 6 other institutions including BlackRock, Fidelity, Schroders, Hashdex, 21shares, and VanEck have all submitted applications for Ethereum spot ETFs.

Previously, the SEC postponed the first and second rounds of applications for all applicants, and the approaching approval dates are March 5, with the latest approval date being July, with March and May being intensive approval periods.

Master's Trend Analysis:

The overall market has not yet stabilized at 52,000, and the market is currently in a range-bound trend. On the four-hour level, it touched 52,000 yesterday, but without a breakthrough and stabilization, the current trend is still in a high-level range-bound state.

I personally believe that this week will completely stabilize at 52,000 points to challenge the short-term pressure above. On the four-hour level, the support is focused on the 50,800-51,200 range, and the resistance above is focused on the 52,000-52,600 range. If it stabilizes at 52,600 on the four-hour level, it is expected to continue to challenge the previous high and directly break through the 53,000 level.

ETH's market has once again broken through to a new high, but from a technical perspective, the trading volume is not that strong. The trend is relatively slow, and based on the current daily level trend, it will continue to rise. Therefore, what needs to be noted this week is that if ETH stabilizes at 3,200 points, it is expected to challenge 3,600.

In addition, a small one-way market has occurred on the small level, and the 3,200-3,230 range should be watched on an intraday basis, with support around 3,060.

2.26 Master's Short-term Pre-embedded Orders

BTC Operation Suggestions:

Long near 50,600-50,800, defend at 300, target 51,300-51,500

ETH Operation Suggestions:

Long near 3,040-3,060, defend at 30, target 3,100-3,130

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Candlesticks are king, trends are emperor. I am Master Chen, focusing on BTC and ETH spot contract for many years. There is no 100% method, only 100% following the trend; daily updates on macro analysis articles and technical analysis review videos across the web. Friendly reminder: Only the official public account (pictured above) is written by Master Chen. The advertisements at the end of the article and in the comments section are not related to the author. Please discern carefully between true and false. Thank you for reading.

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