FOMO Excitement for Bitcoin ETF Gradually Wanes
The price of Bitcoin has risen by 2.2% in the past 24 hours, surpassing $43,000. The market value of Bitcoin is close to $850 billion. Despite selling pressure in the Bitcoin market, Bitcoin ETF continues to attract significant interest and capital inflows. However, with Bitcoin's relatively stable performance, the initial FOMO (fear of missing out) associated with Bitcoin ETF seems to be diminishing.
According to the analysis provided by on-chain data provider Santiment, historical patterns of group discussions surrounding Bitcoin have undergone significant changes, indicating a shift in market sentiment. Traditionally, high-frequency discussions surrounding Bitcoin have been viewed as a fear indicator.
However, Santiment points out that since mid-2023, discussions surrounding Bitcoin have become more positive, indicating a greedy indicator. This shift is attributed to unrealistic expectations regarding market performance following the approval of the ETF.
Three weeks after the SEC approved the Bitcoin ETF, Santiment observed that this indicator began to normalize. However, the analysis highlights a potential risk: if discussions related to Bitcoin exceed those related to other alternative coins in early February, it may push the Bitcoin discussion rate into an unfavorable "unhealthy" zone.
Against the backdrop of the increase in Bitcoin's social dominance signaling a predictable market peak, this rise in negative sentiment in this context may indicate Bitcoin being overlooked once again. Santiment notes that despite recent declines, Bitcoin ETF continues to attract significant trading volume. In terms of trading volume, ARKB ranks first, followed closely by FBTC. While the trading volume of the long-standing Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) has decreased, the trading volume of other products has increased.
Bitcoin Options Data
According to data from GreeksLive, approximately 22,000 Bitcoin options will expire today (February 2nd), with a call-to-put ratio of 0.66. The Maxpain point is set at $42,000, adding significance to the expiring options, with a value of $96 million.
In a relatively stable week for the entire crypto market, a significant development is the decreasing realized volatility (RV) and implied volatility (IV), which is seen as a sign of more funds entering the crypto market through a Bitcoin spot ETF, and a slowdown in Grayscale's sell-off.
In terms of on-chain transactions, activity has been relatively calm, with some large holders reducing their positions. This reduction is related to profit-taking strategies based on speculation about the trend of the ETF. Looking ahead, market enthusiasts are anticipating the next major development surrounding the Bitcoin halving, with speculation about the Bitcoin halving flourishing.
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