Daily Sharing

Bitcoin finally broke through the lowest point of 41500 today and came to 40683, temporarily not breaking through 40500. The short-term third decline at the 1-hour level should be almost over. Let's first look at a 1-hour rebound over the weekend, pay attention to the strength of the rebound, and see if it will be a 4-hour rebound or if it will build an extension of the 1-hour center to continue falling.

Overall, it is in a daily level retracement, patiently waiting for the retracement at a lower position to lay out a new wave of rise.

BTC Medium and Long Term

Daily:

At the daily level, the rebound from the center leaving segment starting at 24900 to near 48969 has shown a divergence at the 4-hour level leaving segment, and then it fell back into the 4-hour center, indicating that the rebound at the daily level, after running for more than 4 months, has probably ended. Currently, the 5-day moving average has crossed below, the weekly chart has a top distribution pattern, and the 3-day moving average has shown two top divergences, all further confirming the probability of a daily retracement.

So, we are currently looking at a daily retracement, with a high probability of breaking through 38000. As for whether it can eventually reach the 30500~34000 range that I hope for, it is not clear for now and can be observed slowly. The daily retracement will likely run until the end of February or mid-March. Then it will start a new wave of daily level rebound, and whether the next rebound can continue to make new highs will be seen at that time.

4H:

At the 4-hour level, Bitcoin has oscillated in the 40500~44000 range to construct the third 4-hour center. It is evident that the strength of the leaving segment "n" compared to the entering segment "m" of the center is in a divergence state, and then it fell back to near the lower boundary of center 3. Therefore, the daily level rebound has ended, and it is currently the first 4-hour decline of the daily level decline.

Is this first 4-hour decline complete? It is currently not very certain. First, look at whether the 4-hour MACD has formed a bottom divergence, then observe the strength of the next 1-hour rebound, and then judge whether the 4-hour decline is complete to start a 4-hour level rebound. Generally, in a daily level decline, there tends to be a 4-hour center appearing in the middle, so it is very likely that the overall daily level decline will run 5 4-hour structures. In this case, it is quite normal for the daily level decline to run for more than a month.

The short-term support is in the 40000~40500 range. If it does not break below this level, it will be a 4-hour rebound. The 4-hour rebound can focus on the 44000~45000 range, which is also an opportunity for a medium-term short sale.

BTC Short Term

Due to the rapid changes in the market, the article can only make predictions about the market changes at the moment of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes and use this information as a reference only.

1H:

At the 1-hour level, the third 1-hour decline here should be almost over, at most a further decline at the 15-minute level. Let's first look at a 1-hour rebound over the weekend, pay attention to the strength of the rebound. If it can reach 43500, then there is a high probability of a 4-hour level rebound, as indicated by the blue arrow.

If the 1-hour rebound does not reach 43500, then it is necessary to pay attention to the possibility of building a 1-hour center to continue extending downward, as indicated by the white arrow.

15M:

At the 15-minute level, there may be a 15-minute level retracement tonight or in the early morning. If the 15-minute level retracement does not break 40683, then there is probably a second buy, and we will look at the 1-hour level rebound to see if it can reach 43500, as indicated by the yellow arrow.

If the 15-minute level retracement falls below 40683, then the previous 1-hour level retracement will continue to extend downward, and we will continue to look at the support in the 40000~40500 range below, depending on the 1-hour level rebound.

ETH

Ethereum's structure is stronger than Bitcoin's mainly because Ethereum's 4-hour level retracement has not yet fallen below 2400. If the current 4-hour level retracement is complete and a 4-hour level rebound occurs, for Ethereum, this will be a third buy. Then Ethereum does indeed have a certain probability of making a new high and then retracing at the daily level. If the 4-hour rebound does not make a new high, then it will be a third buy turning into a second sell, and a third 4-hour level decline will occur. Ethereum's daily level retracement is currently expected to be around 2000.

Ethereum may have a 15-minute level retracement tonight or in the early morning. If the retracement does not break 2440, then we will look at a 1-hour level rebound. If the 1-hour level rebound can break through 2575, it should lead to a 4-hour level rebound. Similarly, if the rebound does not exceed 2573, it is necessary to pay attention to the possibility of building a center to continue falling.

Trend Direction

Weekly Level: Upward, currently an extension of the weekly rebound from 15476, when it will end depends on the subsequent daily level situation.

Daily Level: Downward, expected to have a daily level retracement, with a period of 1~2 months.

4-hour Level: Upward, there is a short-term probability of a second 4-hour level rebound, which needs further observation.

1-hour Level: Upward, let's first look at the strength of a 1-hour rebound over the weekend, to see if it reaches 43500.

15-minute Level: Downward, if the 15-minute level retracement does not break 40683, it will be a second buy for the 1-hour rebound.

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The article is time-sensitive, so please be aware of the risks. The above is only personal advice and is for reference only!

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