Click to watch the video: Master Chen 1.19 Video: Where is the bearish trend of the market? Thoughts on layout of long positions in the medium and long term

Bitcoin experienced another round of decline last night. In today's video, we will discuss where Bitcoin might fall to, or when to close short positions around 49000 to hedge the profits of spot trading, and how to set stop-loss and take-profit points.

First, let's take a look at the weekly chart of Bitcoin. Since 2022, there have been two low points around 15000, including the one near 16000. These two low points form an upward channel or trend line, or a channel parallel to the upper side. The upper position is the resistance of the high point in September 2022.

Then, in April 2023, there was another high point of resistance, or the high point at 49000. The high points have been continuously rising. The next buying point is around 49000, and we should pay attention to the risk. I tried a few short positions starting from 48000 and ended up shorting at the high point of 49000.

My view is that if the upward channel falls to 36000 or really falls to 36000, I may choose to close all my medium and long-term short positions, either all at once or in batches. Because it is still a bull market, with such a large channel in front of us, I believe that if there are still medium and long-term short positions, there is a chance to directly close your positions, as it is certain that the market will go up in the future.

So, we should continue to observe this upward channel, buy at the bottom, or two low points can form an upward channel, plus three low points. Will there be four or five low points later?

My view is that we should pay attention as much as possible. If it really is in this range, around 35000 to 36000, the first premise for Bitcoin is that 40000 must be held. If it is not held, it is not ruled out that it may completely fall to the low point of this channel again. It is possible that we will continue to find positions for long positions.

We can also look at the similarity between the current Bitcoin channel and the bull market in 2015. We can see that it is also at the bottom, and after Bitcoin rose in June 2015, there were two low points that formed an upward trend channel. There was also a black swan event here, but it eventually rose after breaking through the bottom.

We can see that there are constantly higher low points, forming an upward channel. We can also draw a parallel channel from the lower edge of the channel. We can observe that there will be higher high points. Every time it hits the position on the channel, it is possible that the short-term rise is too high, and it may face adjustments. However, as we can see later, when the bull market starts, it breaks through this channel again.

So, I believe that Bitcoin has not halved its production yet. My view is that we need to be cautious if there is really a drop to 36000. If you have funds in spot trading, you can directly buy Bitcoin in spot trading or lay out long positions in the medium and long term. Then, if there is a buying point supported by this trend line, are there any other buying points?

Or if it really is in this range and can hold up, the first premise is that 40000 cannot be broken. I believe there will definitely be a steeper parabolic rise in the future.

Let's take a look at the daily chart of Bitcoin. Because the price has already fallen below the purple 60ma, we should observe the support level at the round number level, 40000. If it cannot be held, it may be a trap when it goes up.

Or for friends who have laid out medium and long-term short positions around 49000 to 48000, I have mentioned before that the stop-loss can be set around 45000. But currently, I think the stop-loss can be lowered to around 44.4K.

For more strategies, you can add real trading accounts.

Candlesticks are king, trends are emperor. I am Master Chen, focusing on BTC, ETH spot contracts for many years. There is no 100% method, only 100% following the trend. Daily macro analysis articles and technical analysis review videos are updated on the entire network. _Friendly reminder: Only the public account of the column (as shown in the picture above) is written by Master Chen. The advertisements at the end of the article and in the comments section are not related to the author. Please distinguish between true and false carefully. Thank you for reading.

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