Daily Sharing

After a rapid decline in the price of Bitcoin yesterday, it cleared out the high-level leverage. So, will it continue to rise after the decline or start a new major correction?

First, we need to understand the background. The rebound of Bitcoin at the daily level started from 24900 and has been rising rapidly for nearly 4 months. How much longer can it continue to rise? It's probably difficult to continue rising for a long time because there are already a lot of accumulated profit chips outside. Therefore, at the sustained high level, some people will start to gradually cash out.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin is approaching the limit of the rising structure at the three pivots, and there is a high probability of a daily level correction after the rise.

From a fundamental perspective, the latest landing situation of spot ETFs is about to appear, and whether it is approved or not can only change the short-term price at most. Because the previous expectations were too full, for the past few months, over 90% of people believed that the ETF would be approved, and the market had already priced in this expectation in advance. If it is really approved, it may easily trigger a situation of profit realization. Of course, there will be more ETF news in March, but it is very likely to see a daily level correction before that.

So, I believe that a daily level correction is very likely to come this time. However, before the approval of the ETF, the market will continue to revolve around this long and short game for a few days. If approved, it is highly likely to start a rebound after a slight rise. If not approved, it will directly start a cliff-like decline. Therefore, a daily level correction in the middle and late of this month is quite probable. As for the short term, both long and short have opportunities, but be aware that the recent increased volatility and high leverage contract risks are high.

BTC

Due to the rapid changes in the market, this article can only make predictions based on the market changes at the time of publication. Short-term players should pay attention to the latest market changes and use this information as a reference only.

1H:

At the 1-hour level, it is considered that there may be a small rebound at the 1-hour level, i.e., the 1-hour MACD retracing to the 0 axis. As long as the price does not break through 44000, there is a high probability of another 1-hour level decline to around 41000. Or, a 15-minute level pivot may be constructed here to extend the 1-hour level decline, and then a rebound at the 1-hour level may occur after a divergence.

15M:

At the 15-minute level, a 15-minute level pivot has formed. In the short term, it is observed whether there will be a 1-hour level rebound towards 43550 and a subsequent rise to around 44000. Or, it may fall back to around 41000 to continue the 1-hour level decline.

ETH

The situation is similar for Ethereum. A 15-minute level pivot has formed here. In the short term, it is observed whether the white route or the blue route will be taken. The white route is to go up again to around 2250-2300 to complete a 1-hour level rebound, and then experience a 1-hour level decline. The blue route is to first fall below 2188, then retest around 2100 to continue the 1-hour level decline, and then rebound at the 1-hour level.

Trend Direction

Weekly Level: Upward, currently continuing the weekly rebound from 15476. Pay attention to the subsequent daily level situation to determine when it will end.

Daily Level: Upward or downward. The rebound at the daily level actually implies an early end, and the probability is not small. In the near term, focus on the impact of the news on the market.

4-hour Level: Oscillating. Strictly speaking, the rebound at the 4-hour level has not been successful. In the next few days, pay attention to the support at 40500-40000. If it does not break, expect oscillation. Choose a direction after the news lands.

1-hour Level: Downward. A 1-hour level decline has been directly carried out, and the intensity is relatively high. It may still retest around 41000.

15-minute Level: Consolidating. A 15-minute level pivot has formed. Observe whether it will break through the pivot upwards or downwards. If it breaks upwards, it may indicate an early 1-hour rebound. If it breaks downwards, it may retest around 41000 to extend the 1-hour decline.

Feel free to follow my public account for further discussion and exchange:

The article is time-sensitive, so be cautious of risks. The above is only personal advice and is for reference only!

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