○/Text: Deepcoin Research Institute

Old Li Mortar

This week's research report directory:

I. Key events preview of macroeconomic data and the cryptocurrency market this week;

II. Review of key news in the cryptocurrency industry;

III. Community interaction and sharing;

IV. Interpretation of important events, data, and Deepcoin Research Institute;

V. Institutional perspectives and overseas views;

VI. Top gainers in the cryptocurrency market last week and selection of hot community coins;

VII. Attention to project token unlocking and negative data;

VIII. Top gainers in the cryptocurrency market concept sectors;

IX. Overview of global market macro analysis;

X. Future market analysis by Deepcoin Research Institute.

I. Key events preview of macroeconomic data and the cryptocurrency market this week:

January 2 (Tuesday): Manufacturing PMI in the United States and the Eurozone; China Foreign Exchange Trading Center launches related services for Macau yuan foreign exchange trading; China Securities A50 Index released. ETF expert: Bitcoin spot ETF may be approved at any time after January 2;

January 3 (Wednesday): December ISM Manufacturing PMI in the United States; Federal Reserve's Bostic delivers a speech; Revision of the Growth Index of the ChiNext Board in A shares. BlackRock plans to inject $10 million in seed funding for its spot Bitcoin ETF. Rune .Alpha, a Bitcoin inscription project, will open the trading market; Web3 game Gas Hero will be officially launched.

January 4 (Thursday): Eurozone CPI, US Services PMI, US ADP Employment Report for December; Federal Reserve releases minutes of the monetary policy meeting. BakerySwap will launch the 4th phase project BendDAO of BRC 20;

January 5 (Friday): Eurozone CPI for December and PPI for November, US non-farm employment and unemployment rate for December. Xai airdrop postponed.

January 6 (Saturday): CFTC in the United States publishes weekly position reports; Federal Reserve's Bostic delivers a speech.

This week, tokens such as HFT, SUI, ACA, etc., will be unlocked, with a total value of approximately $43.37 million.

II. Review of key news in the cryptocurrency industry (exclusive summary):

News summary: The cryptocurrency market presents a diversified trend. The decrease in Coinbase holdings may reflect investors shifting to other assets. Companies like Marathon Digital have shown strong performance, deviating from the overall market trend. The FTX bankruptcy case has attracted attention, highlighting the valuation dispute and the difficulty of valuing digital assets. The upward trend in Bitcoin futures prices indicates optimism about the future market. Institutions are close to consensus with the SEC on Bitcoin spot ETF, indicating the possibility of more institutional funds flowing in. Overall, the cryptocurrency market remains vibrant, and investors need to pay attention to various information to make wise decisions.

Data:

The Bitcoin balance of Coinbase has decreased significantly, with about 30,000 Bitcoins leaving the platform in a few days, marking the largest Bitcoin withdrawal since May this year. This reduction is estimated to bring the platform's Bitcoin holdings to about 411,000, the lowest level since 2015.

Market data shows that the stock price of Marathon Digital has increased more than 8 times since the beginning of the year, making it the best-performing company with a valuation of $5 billion or more in the cryptocurrency-related sector. In addition, Coinbase, MicroStrategy, and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust have all seen increases of over 300% in 2023, making these stocks not only outperform mainstream cryptocurrencies but also become some of the top-performing stocks in the entire US market. According to FactSet data, among US-listed companies with a market value of at least $5 billion, these four Bitcoin-related stocks are among the top eight performers.

Data shows that the Bitcoin futures price for the end of 2024 has risen to $51,450, a premium of 13.71% over the current price. Last weekend, the price was still around $47,000.

Projects and platforms:

According to court documents dated December 27, bankrupt FTX is seeking court approval to estimate its clients' digital asset claims in US dollars. The platform proposes the following prices for estimation: Bitcoin at $16,871, Ethereum at $1,258, SOL at $16, and AVAX at $14.19. FTX believes that its valuation represents the "fair and reasonable" value of these digital assets as of the bankruptcy date (November 11, 2022). This motion has drawn criticism from FTX creditors, with one of the most prominent creditors, Sunil Kavuri, pointing out that the motion severely undervalues the digital assets and urging clients to "resist." All parties involved in the bankruptcy case must file objections by January 11, and a hearing on this matter is scheduled for January 25.

Macro policies and regulatory aspects:

Nate Geraci, an ETF expert, stated that institutions have had very detailed discussions with the SEC on the structural issues of Bitcoin spot ETF and are "very close" to reaching a consensus. It is expected that the Bitcoin spot ETF will create new fund shares in cash form. In addition, Nate Geraci stated that the preparation work for the listing of ETF-related products and the backend infrastructure has been completed, and the SEC could approve the Bitcoin spot ETF at any time after January 2.

Institutional research reports and perspectives:

Bloomberg ETF analysis stated that ARK has sold all of its remaining GBTC positions (a month ago, it was the largest holding of ARKW) and used about half of the funds (around $100 million) to purchase BITO, which may serve as a transitional tool to maintain beta value when Bitcoin reaches ARKW or ARKB.

ETF research company ETFGI reported that globally listed cryptocurrency ETFs have attracted $1.6 billion in net inflows since the beginning of the year, with an increase of $1.31 billion in November alone. This total investment is almost twice the $750 million net inflow of cryptocurrency ETPs in 2022. Among the 150 cryptocurrency funds, the top 20 ETFs attracted the largest investment, totaling $1.3 billion in 2023. ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO), launched during the cryptocurrency bull market in October 2021, witnessed the largest inflow of individual funds and received an additional $278.7 million in 2023.

The latest research report from 10x Research: The stock price of MicroStrategy seems to be overvalued by 26%, based on the company's regression model, which studied the relationship between the dependent variable MSTR and the independent variable BTC spot price. Analysts stated that based on the closing price of MSTR at $673 on Thursday, MSTR is overvalued by over 20% compared to the market price of Bitcoin around $43,000.

III. Community interaction and sharing:

Regarding the main manipulation methods of TRB, in the past two months, whales have gradually deposited their tokens into exchanges, creating a pump-and-dump cycle to liquidate the tokens they hold. The English term for raising the price and selling off is "Pump and Dump," which means that the asset price sharply rises, but then sharply falls due to selling, leading to a situation of raising the price and selling off.

Regarding setting stop-loss. The stop-loss point should generally be set outside of key prices, rather than at the risk point that can be tolerated.

Regarding spot positions. Everyone has different risk control and preferences for spot positions. I currently have about 40-50% of spot positions left, mainly in BTC. If there is a future pullback, I will increase my position; if there is a significant rise in the future, I will sell high.

Regarding options delivery and the biggest pain point. At the end of the year, a total of $11 billion in options will expire, higher than the total position of $9.8 billion at the last year's annual expiration, and more than double the annual expiration volume at that time. At the end of each year, the market will always enter a low volatility period, but due to the expected launch of ETFs in January next year, the overall IV level is not too low. I have previously provided a detailed explanation. In traditional financial markets, the biggest pain point generally affects price movements towards the pain point, but derivative products in the cryptocurrency market have not yet reached a significant scale, so the impact is relatively limited. However, considering it is the annual expiration, it will still cause some volatility.

IV. Interpretation of important events and data by Deepcoin Research Institute:

About the movements of the whale. According to The Data Nerd's monitoring, a group of BTC whales made over $1 billion in profit as BTC broke through $45,400 to reach a nearly 2-year high. From October to November 2022, they accumulated 21,528 BTC from Binance, worth $400 million, with an average purchase price of $18,582. They recently sold a total of 12,391 BTC at the highest price, realizing a total profit of $105.4 million. They currently hold a total of 26,287 BTC in two main wallets, worth $1.19 billion. Their unrealized profit totals $654.3 million, with a profit of over 121%.

The Deepcoin Research Institute believes that the trading behavior of these BTC whales indicates their optimistic long-term outlook on BTC. They began accumulating BTC in the second half of 2022 and recently sold some BTC at the highest price to realize profits. In other words, at the $45,400 position, the whales sold 57.56% of their holdings, worth $563 million, which may affect the price in the short term. However, their continued holding of a large amount of BTC indicates their long-term confidence in BTC.

The trading behavior of these BTC whales may have a certain impact on the BTC market. Their selling behavior may cause a short-term decline in BTC prices, but their continued holding behavior may also provide support for the BTC market.

We should closely monitor the trading behavior of these BTC whales to assess their impact on the BTC market. Their behavior can serve as a reference but should not be the sole basis for decision-making. If these whales continue to sell BTC, it may lead to a short-term market adjustment. However, if they continue to hold BTC, it may provide support for the market.

Regarding MicroStrategy and its subsidiaries purchasing approximately 14,620 BTC for about $615.7 million in cash from November 30 to December 26. They currently hold a total of 189,150 BTC.

The Deepcoin Research Institute believes that this news prompted a significant rebound in the market last night, almost completely recovering from the decline since Christmas. Unlike the previous month's selling of Coinbase stocks and GBTC shares by MicroStrategy, the recent increase in Bitcoin purchases by MicroStrategy indicates the company's continued confidence in the long-term value of Bitcoin. From an analytical and research perspective, MicroStrategy's increased position has several implications:

First, we all know the scarcity of Bitcoin, which has natural value reserves. Based on the company's executives' previous statements, this increase in position is likely to hedge financial assets against inflationary pressures, as the company believes that Bitcoin has long-term value, can resist inflation and economic recession, and bring high returns. Second, as one of the largest Bitcoin holding companies globally, MicroStrategy's increased position will further increase its influence on the Bitcoin market, possibly being seen as a market signal, thereby providing support and upward pressure on Bitcoin prices, and also having a positive effect on BTC liquidity, undoubtedly benefiting the coin price. Third, as a well-known publicly traded company and one of the most influential institutions in the cryptocurrency market, MicroStrategy's increased position will provide confidence to other institutional investors, encouraging them to invest in Bitcoin, and may also attract other retail investors to increase their positions. In summary, MicroStrategy's increased position indicates the potential of Bitcoin as a value reserve and will provide impetus for institutional investment in Bitcoin.

In addition, we need to note that this is data from the past month. If it is on-exchange trading in the secondary market, it has already been reflected in the market; if it is off-exchange trading, it will not have much impact on BTC prices. Their buying and selling are not disclosed in real-time but are announced after the fact. Therefore, this news only had a short-term impact on market sentiment, leading to a rise in the coin price. In the long-term trend, it may not have much driving force.

According to our latest verified data, MicroStrategy increased its Bitcoin holdings by 9.2% during this period, with an average price of $42,093, far higher than its previous purchase price. The total number of Bitcoins currently held is 189,150, purchased for approximately $5.9 billion, with an average cost of $31,168, and a current total value of $8.115 billion. MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings have a floating profit of over $2.2 billion. Maintaining such a large profit margin may lead to future selling and potential downside risk, which is also something we need to pay attention to.

Regarding the topic of Solana surpassing Ethereum.

The Deepcoin Research Institute believes that the recent strong rise of Solana may have dazzled some speculators, leading to unlimited imagination and fantasies of "to the moon." This morning, there was an interesting viewpoint, which I will also share here. Well-known angel investor Santos stated that Solana will eventually surpass Ethereum and sit on par with it, with an 80% probability of this happening in the current market cycle. With the influx of funds and the overall increase in cryptocurrency market capitalization, the price of Solana may rise again, and the exchange rate of Solana to Ethereum may eventually equal 1:1.

The above content represents Santos's personal opinion, and the Deepcoin Research Institute believes that, as a well-known angel investor, his views may have a certain reference value for market investors but also have many limitations.

First, the recent rise of Solana is due to the overall outstanding performance of the Solana ecosystem driven by the DePin concept. From the increase in Google search volume, the performance of this asset aligns with the surge in meme coins. The concept of inscription minting on the Solana chain has been hot, pushing Solana to rise to above $126 and surpassing Ripple and BNB in market capitalization, ranking fourth in the cryptocurrency market value, second only to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the stablecoin USDT. However, those familiar with the speculative concepts in the cryptocurrency market should know that the duration of a hot trend is limited. Generally, when the hype subsides, related tokens will enter a period of decline. Therefore, it is doubtful whether Solana can continue to rise continuously. We believe that it will be difficult for Solana to maintain a long-term bull market in the coming years.

Second, speaking of speculative trends, the next year's hot trend may switch to the Ethereum Cancun upgrade, which will attract more traffic and funds. Looking back at history, most of Ethereum's upgrades have brought about certain market trends, and Ethereum may also rise. Although Solana has the reputation of being an "Ethereum killer," it still lags far behind in market consensus and value recognition. For example, as Old Li often mentions, currently about 94% of the altcoin projects are developed based on Ethereum technology, while Solana's ecosystem share is relatively small. If Ethereum gains momentum in media coverage and market speculation, it is likely to steal Solana's current popularity, and we believe that Solana's popularity may not last until the speculation of the Ethereum Cancun upgrade next year.

Third, FTX and Alameda are the main holders of Solana, currently holding 2 million coins, worth over $200 million, which may be liquidated at any time. In addition, there are 40.5 million Solana coins, worth over $4 billion, which will be released linearly on a monthly basis, mainly in 2025, with potential inflation expectations in the future. These two points are negative for the price of Solana. Therefore, in terms of exchange rates, it is difficult for Solana to be on par with Ethereum. After all, the historical highest price of Solana is only around $260, while Ethereum has historically risen to around $4,868. Currently, there is still about a 20-fold price difference between the two, meaning that we believe it will be difficult for Solana to outperform Ethereum by 20 times in the future.

Finally, Solana also has certain technological advantages. They claim to be the world's fastest blockchain, capable of processing up to 65,000 transactions per second, far exceeding Ethereum, and with very low transaction fees. Solana's speed and scalability have attracted many developers and users, especially in the DeFi and NFT fields. The Solana ecosystem also has many innovative projects and applications, providing it with rich functionality and liquidity, and increasing the demand and value of Solana. However, Solana also has disadvantages, such as two outages in 2022, leading to user losses in terms of security. Additionally, in terms of the ecosystem, Solana's ecosystem is still in the early stages of development and has a certain gap compared to Ethereum.

In summary, the cryptocurrency market is still in a highly uncertain state, and the direction of fund inflows is difficult to predict, and the trend of Solana is closely related to the overall cryptocurrency market environment. Fields such as DeFi and NFT are still in the early stages of development, and their future development direction is not yet clear. Therefore, it is not scientific to solely judge the future parity of Solana surpassing Ethereum and the exchange rate price level based on these two aspects.

V. Institutional Views + Overseas Perspectives:

Financial services company Matrixport predicts that driven by factors such as the imminent approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF, institutional buying, supply shortages, and historical trends, Bitcoin is expected to soar to $50,000 in January and may usher in the cryptocurrency season, with funding rates reaching +66%.

Greeks stated that driven by insider information about the ETF, BTC rose to $45,000, reaching a nearly one-year high. As a result, short-term option IVs surged significantly, with flat option IVs exceeding 70% on January 12, and flat option IVs increasing to 65% this week. Meanwhile, large-scale trading, which had been quiet for several days, became active again, with the nominal value trading volume of large bullish options approaching $300 million today, mainly dominated by short-term flat and medium-term regular trades. It is difficult not to suspect that these orders come from a source, and the ETF is likely to achieve results in the first half of this month.

The Chief Investment Officer of Hashdex stated that if a spot Bitcoin ETF is not approved quickly, we believe that the investment case for BTC in 2024 remains very strong. More and more investors are beginning to realize the benefits of Bitcoin as digital gold or a value store. The next Bitcoin halving is approaching, and if history repeats itself, the price of Bitcoin will react positively to the scheduled reduction in supply. He said, "Regardless of when a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved, the outlook for BTC has never been stronger."

Wall Street analyst Max Keizer stated that the increase in Bitcoin mining difficulty will push its price above $400,000. According to BTC.com data, the Bitcoin mining difficulty adjustment at block height 822,528 (14:04:24 on December 23, 2023) saw a 6.98% increase to 72.01 T, setting a new historical high. The current average network hashrate is 531.98 EH/s.

Ethereum broke through its yearly high last week, reaching around $2,450. A senior research analyst at Grayscale Investments stated that Ethereum's rise on Wednesday indicates that the market is finally shifting towards ETH-centered trading, although this may not fully materialize until appropriate regulatory approval is obtained for a spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States. Ethereum's on-chain activity remains very strong, and Ethereum is expected to catch up in the future.

In summary, driven by multiple positive factors, the cryptocurrency market is showing a bullish trend. Matrixport predicts that influenced by factors such as the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF, institutional buying, and historical trends, the price of Bitcoin is expected to soar to $50,000 in January. In addition, driven by insider information about the ETF, BTC has risen to nearly a one-year high, and short-term option trading is active, with a significant increase in the trading volume of large bullish options. Meanwhile, more and more investors are realizing the value of Bitcoin as digital gold and believe in its strong prospects. In addition, a Wall Street analyst predicts that with the increase in Bitcoin mining difficulty, the price of Bitcoin will exceed $400,000. As for Ethereum, although the market is still shifting towards ETH-centered trading, its on-chain activity is strong, and it is expected to catch up in the future. Overall, the cryptocurrency market is in a positive development trend.

VI. Last Week's Cryptocurrency Price Increase Ranking and Community Hot Coin Selection:

In the past week, the ranking of the price increase of altcoins is as follows: BSV nearly doubled, LSK rose by 82.49%, VLX rose by 61.91%, and other coins such as SAFE, ASTR, LCX, and ICP increased by approximately 45%-55%. There are also other coins with significant price increases, which can be considered for trading opportunities this week.

The following are hot coin selections discussed in the DC community, for reference only and not as a basis for trading decisions:

Around 6:00 am on January 1, 2024, TRB suddenly plunged after a steady climb of nearly $600, dropping below $200 at one point. TRB experienced drastic fluctuations within 24 hours, reaching a historical high of $315 on the evening of December 31, then dropping 25% to $236, and then rising over 150% within a few hours to reach a new high of $593 at 6:00 am on January 1, followed by a sharp decline. It dropped nearly 80% to $209. Such drastic fluctuations quickly led to the liquidation of investors who had been chasing the price higher. According to Coinglass data, liquidations amounted to $71.68 million in the past 24 hours, ranking first. Currently, out of the 2.5 million TRB in circulation, approximately 1.7 million are held on exchanges, and 660,000 TRB are held by 20 major accounts.

It is suggested to pay more attention to XRP than XLM in terms of news.

Compared to BSV's strong performance, BCH's trend is relatively stable, and it has not even kept up with BTC's trend. The upper resistance is around the previous high of $329 in June last year, and the short-term support is around $247.4-249.1.

Currently, the upper resistance for ICP is around $23.5.

The weekly chart of FLOW shows that the downtrend line was broken in early November. In addition, from the perspective of project fundamentals and data, after oscillating at the bottom for a year and with a historical decline of nearly 100%, as well as being a project invested in by A16Z and Coinbase, it belongs to the concept sectors of public chains, NFTs, games, and Layer 1, and still has certain prospects for the future.

The previous rise of FTT was due to the expectation of FTX's relaunch. The recent speculation has been relatively subdued. It is important to pay attention to the $2.76 level, as it will determine the future direction. If it holds, there may be a rebound; if it breaks, it will accelerate the decline.

The daily chart of LINK shows the presence of an upward channel at high levels. It is expected to continue to oscillate and adjust until it breaks through the upper and lower technical positions. The current support is around $14, and the resistance is around $18.

The daily chart of DOT indicates a pullback after the rise. The current support is around $7.6, and if it stabilizes around this level, there may be an opportunity for another rebound. Strong support is around $6.2-6.4.

The upper resistance for BSV is currently around $200. BSV is known for its strong but unsustainable performance, often followed by a decline after a rally. If considering a second purchase, it may be worth considering entering near the original support level.

After a sharp rise and fall in October, the overall trend of LOOM has become increasingly convergent, with reduced volatility. Looking at the daily chart, there is no clear trend, so it is necessary to wait for a strong positive or negative candle to determine the next direction. Short-term high selling and low buying operations can be considered, and it is necessary to wait for a breakthrough before following the trend.

VII. Project Token Unlocking and Negative Data Focus:

Data shows that this week, tokens such as HFT, SUI, and ACA will undergo a one-time large-scale unlocking, with a total release value of approximately $43.37 million. Specifically:

At 3:00 pm on January 1, Acala will unlock 27.43 million ACA (approximately $2.95 million), accounting for 3.1% of the circulating supply.

At 8:00 am on January 2, Sui will unlock 34.62 million SUI (approximately $26.88 million), accounting for 3.35% of the circulating supply.

At 8:00 am on January 5, Galxe will unlock 3 million GAL (approximately $6.97 million), accounting for 3.34% of the circulating supply.

January 7th, 8:00 AM, Hashflow will unlock 13.62 million HFT tokens (approximately $5.14 million), accounting for 4.81% of the circulating supply. In addition, HFT will unlock 316,200 tokens daily starting from that day, continuing for 366 days.

This week, pay attention to the negative effects brought by the unlocking of these tokens, avoid spot trading, and seek shorting opportunities in contracts. The unlocking magnitude of each token is relatively large, so pay close attention.

VIII. Last Week's Cryptocurrency Concept Sector Performance Ranking:

In the past week, the performance of concept sectors is as shown above. Based on the percentage change, the recent seven-day increases, the IFO concept, Dapp, 2024 Halving, Huobi Eco Chain Heco, and Robinhood's launch led the way in concept or sector increases. Pay attention to the rotation and speculation in the sector. Other concept sectors such as Super Computing Power, Algorithmic Stablecoins, Rollup, ST concept, Cross-chain & Sidechain are also worth paying attention to.

IX. Global Market Macro Analysis Overview:

Last week, major global stock indices showed an upward trend, but the performance of technology stocks was relatively weak. In terms of market sentiment, investors have raised their expectations for economic recovery but still have concerns about inflationary pressures. From a fundamental perspective, global economic recovery is still ongoing, but inflationary pressures still exist. The Hong Kong stock market is relatively stable but with differentiated sector performance; the U.S. stock market shows complex sentiment, with divergent trends in technology stocks and bank stocks; the A-share market has increased activity, with most indices rising, and sector performance is also differentiated. When making investment decisions, investors should pay attention to market dynamics and changes in industry trends. Specifically:

In the Hong Kong stock market, the three major indices rose slightly last Friday, with the Hang Seng Index up 0.02%, the H-share Index up 0.06%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index up 0.01%. Sectors such as virtual reality, smart home, and new energy vehicles led the gains, while sectors such as security, integrated die-casting, online travel, and life science tools performed poorly.

In the U.S. stock market, the three major indices generally rose last week, with the Nasdaq Composite Index cumulatively up 0.12%, the S&P 500 Index up 0.32%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.81%. Last Friday, most technology stocks fell, with Apple down 0.54%, Amazon down 0.94%, Netflix down 0.74%, Google down 0.39%, Facebook down 1.22%, and Microsoft up 0.2%. Bank stocks all declined, and popular Chinese concept stocks generally rose.

In the A-share market, most major indices rose last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index up 2.06% and 3.59% respectively, and the MSCI China A50 Index up 3.54%. The total market turnover surged to 800-900 billion yuan in the last two trading days. In terms of sectors, the leading sectors were power equipment and new energy, with non-ferrous metals, food and beverage, electronics, and machinery industries leading the gains, while media, real estate, transportation, and coal industries declined. The CSI A50 Index selects the 50 largest securities in each industry by market value as index samples, with a relatively balanced industry distribution, providing a comprehensive overview of the overall performance of leading listed companies in various industries.

In 2023, the Saudi sovereign wealth fund became the most active sovereign investor globally. According to the Global SWF report, the Saudi sovereign wealth fund spent as much as $31.6 billion in 2023, far exceeding the previous year's $20.7 billion. The total spending of all sovereign wealth funds globally decreased by about one-fifth year-on-year to $123.8 billion. The Government of Singapore Investment Corporation led the decline, reducing its capital allocation by 46% to $19.9 billion, losing the title of the most active sovereign wealth fund globally for the first time in six years. Amid market turmoil, Temasek also reduced new investments by 53% to $6.3 billion, leading to a continuous decline in the reported returns of these two investors headquartered in Singapore. The report pointed out that sovereign wealth funds controlled by the oil-rich governments of Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar occupied five out of the ten most active sovereign funds last year, and this trend may continue.

In summary, the strong performance of the Saudi sovereign wealth fund demonstrates the increasing influence of the Middle East region in global investments, while the relatively lagging performance of Singaporean investors may require adjustments in strategy to adapt to the constantly changing market. At the same time, global sovereign wealth funds continue to act cautiously in the uncertain economic environment, reflecting sensitivity to risk.

X. Future Market Analysis:

BTC daily chart: At the beginning of the new year, some funds in the market are betting on the approval of the ETF, which has boosted market sentiment. BTC broke through the recent high of $44,700 on January 2, and according to our previous analysis, breaking through the oscillation range can be followed up. Currently, it has risen to around $45,880. The upper resistance for BTC is around $48,190-$48,555.

However, from the liquidation data, there are relatively few short positions. It may be relatively strong before the announcement of the ETF approval, and when the news is announced, if it is approved, there may be a moderate increase followed by a decline; if it is not approved, there may be a direct decline. According to the established schedule, the closest time point for the announcement of the spot Bitcoin ETF application results is January 10: the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF, which has been delayed twice, will have its final decision. In addition, from January 14th to 17th, seven spot Bitcoin ETF applications will face the time point for the SEC to make a decision. However, according to past practice, it is highly likely that the decision will be further delayed to the last time window in mid-March.

From a larger perspective, BTC has been in a phase of upward movement since the beginning of 2023, and the bull market trend after breaking through $25,200 and $32,400 has been mentioned multiple times in our previous analysis. According to on-chain analysis monitoring, Bitcoin miners sold over 3,000 BTC worth about $129 million in the past 24 hours. Such large-scale selling generally affects the price of BTC, so during the significant upward trend, we also need to pay attention to the actions of miners and whales and make trading plans accordingly.

Follow us: Lao Li Mortar

Deepcoin Research Institute

January 2, 2024

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