This article is only a personal market view and does not constitute investment advice. If you operate according to this, you are responsible for your own gains and losses.
Beijing trader: On-chain data user, trend trader.
Happy New Year, everyone. Today, the Beijing trader plans to analyze his views on the BTC market from a long to short perspective.
First, let's look at the quarterly K-line. From a wave perspective, since January 2023, there are two possibilities:
- It is currently the C wave of the ABC rebound wave.
- It is currently the third wave of the new 5-wave uptrend.
As for which of these two possibilities is correct, it mainly depends on whether the price will fall below the peak of the 1st wave - 31,000. If the price falls below 31,000 during the subsequent pullback, it is the first possibility, indicating a long-term decline. If the pullback price does not fall below 31,000, it is very likely the second possibility, indicating that a new bull market has started.
From a weekly perspective, the market has been running within an ascending channel since 2023. If it breaks upwards, it is highly likely to accelerate the uptrend. The current rebound high is still blocked by the upper boundary of the channel.
Looking at the daily level, the market has been oscillating between 40,000 and 44,000 for about a month. The indicators also show a bearish divergence and a death cross. Currently, it is likely to revisit the vicinity of 40,000 in the near future. At the same time, 40,000 is also the support level resonating with the moving average, Fibonacci, and the upward trend line of this round of uptrend. If it falls below, it indicates that the uptrend has come to an end.
The trend of BTC seems straightforward. Just wait for a breakthrough of the oscillation range and follow suit.
It is worth noting that during the high-level oscillation of BTC, the daily technical indicators have already shown a bearish divergence and a death cross, indicating an inevitable correction in the future. Even if the ETF is approved, the short-term rally will only exacerbate the divergence, leading to a longer-lasting correction in the future.
As mentioned earlier, the USDT market share indicator touched the support line on December 28th. Currently, the indicator shows a bullish state with technical indicators showing a bottom divergence, support line, and a golden cross, corresponding to the explanation that the market is currently at a relatively high position, with a bearish outlook, even if the ETF is approved, it is still primarily bearish.
Waiting for the indicator to recover, we will see better investment opportunities. In the near future, just focus on whether BTC will break through 40,000 or 44,000.
Finally, in terms of the market performance in 2023, it is a bull market in terms of the increase, but undoubtedly not in terms of the trend. Because bull markets are characterized by slow and steady rises, with a high probability of making money at any time. In contrast, BTC has been oscillating for 90% of the year, and genuine uptrends are basically over within a week. This is not the behavior of a real bull market. So, for those who missed out, there is no need to be discouraged. If the bull market is really coming, it is not in the main uptrend stage now, so there are still many opportunities, no need to be regretful.
Follow me and maximize trend profits with minimal operations.
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