○/文：Deepcoin Research Institute

Table of Contents for This Week's Research Report:

I. Key Events Preview of Macro-Economic Data and Cryptocurrency Market for the Week;

II. Review of Key News in the Cryptocurrency Industry;

III. Community Interaction and Sharing;

IV. Interpretation of Important Events, Data, and Analysis by Deepcoin Research Institute;

V. Institutional Perspectives and Overseas Views;

VI. Top Gainers in the Cryptocurrency Market Last Week and Selection of Community Hot Coins;

VII. Attention to Project Token Unlocking and Negative Data;

VIII. Top Gainers in Cryptocurrency Market Concept Sectors;

IX. Overview of Global Market Macro Analysis;

X. Future Market Analysis by Deepcoin Research Institute.

I. Preview of Key Events in Macro-Economic Data and Cryptocurrency Market for the Week:

December 25th (Monday): Speech by Haruhiko Kuroda, Governor of the Bank of Japan; Christmas holiday, one-day closure of US stock market, two-day closure of European and Hong Kong stock markets. The Osaka Digital Exchange will conduct its first digital securities transaction.

December 26th (Tuesday): Japan's unemployment rate for November; US FHFA House Price Index for October, US S&P/CS20 Major City House Price Index for October; UniSat will begin supporting ARC 20.

December 27th (Wednesday): Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for December in the US; Bank of Japan to release a summary of the opinions of the deliberation committee on monetary policy for December. Xai will conduct a token airdrop.

December 28th (Thursday): Initial jobless claims in the US for the week, US Pending Home Sales Index for November. HashKey Exchange plans to launch its market-making project. Deadline for claiming unclaimed airdrops for Namada, which will be distributed to registered addresses.

December 29th (Friday): Chicago PMI for December in the US; UK Nationwide House Price Index for December; Switzerland's KOF Economic Leading Indicator for December; one-day closure of the South Korean stock market; early closure of the UK stock market at 20:30 Beijing time; ICE's Brent crude oil futures contract trading will end at 04:00 Beijing time on December 30th.

December 30th (Saturday): The US government may sell the BTC it holds again.

December 31st (Sunday): KAVA token inflation rate will be permanently reduced to zero.

This week, ACA, DYDX, 1INCH, YGG, AGIX, X2Y2, OP, and SUI tokens will have a new unlocking.

II. Review of Key News in the Cryptocurrency Industry (Exclusive Compilation):

Market Overview: The cryptocurrency market in 2023 has experienced rapid development and various challenges. Mainstream currencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum have made breakthroughs in market value, NFTs, and mining. Emerging platforms like Solana have also emerged. The US SEC has made progress in approving physically-backed Bitcoin ETFs, but has also strengthened regulation in the cryptocurrency field. Major institutions have released their views and predictions on the cryptocurrency market. This article summarizes the current development and trends of the cryptocurrency market from four aspects: data, projects and platforms, macro policies and regulations, and institutional research reports and perspectives. The following are the details:

Data Aspect: Bitcoin performed strongly in 2023, surpassing Ethereum in market value, NFTs, and mining. The total sales of on-chain NFTs exceeded $1.5 billion, and transaction fees and open interest contracts also reached new highs. However, there has been a large outflow of Bitcoin and Ethereum from exchange wallets recently. Addresses holding 1-100 BTC account for 33%, and holders of over 10 years own over 3 million Bitcoins. Whales sold about 50,000 BTC in the past week.

Projects and Platforms Aspect: Solana set historical records in monthly active addresses and new addresses. The trading volume of SOL on Upbit has been higher than that of ETH for 55 consecutive days, demonstrating its strong development momentum. ARK Invest has cumulatively reduced its holdings of COIN by $56.97 million since last week, and reduced $245 million of Coinbase and GBTC stocks in the past 30 days, indicating its bearish view on the cryptocurrency market. Ethereum developers plan to deploy the Dencun upgrade on the Goerli testnet on January 17th to enhance the network's security and efficiency. friend.tech will release the v2 version in spring 2024, providing more social and entertainment features. Justin Sun and a whale's new wallet accumulated over $20 million worth of SHIB in the past month, showing their support for dog-themed projects.

Macro Policies and Regulations Aspect: The US SEC has made new progress in approving physically-backed Bitcoin ETFs. Grayscale met with the SEC again to discuss GBTC, striving for a physical creation model. Fox News reported that major asset management companies believe that the US SEC will approve the first physically-backed Bitcoin ETF in early January. Former SEC officials also indicated that the legacy of the SEC chairman may be the approval of physically-backed Bitcoin ETFs. However, the SEC has also delayed decisions on Grayscale's Ethereum Futures ETF, ARK Invest, and VanEck's physically-backed Ethereum ETF, requiring issuers to use cash to create physically-backed Bitcoin ETFs and to remove all implications of physical redemption from the documents, demonstrating its strict regulation of the cryptocurrency field. The US Court of Appeals ultimately ruled to confiscate Bitcoin related to the Silk Road, demonstrating its crackdown on illegal activities. The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission stipulates that spot ETFs for virtual assets can only be traded on futures exchanges regulated by the commission, restricting the development space of the cryptocurrency market. The UK Treasury will discuss issues related to crypto banks with legislators, exploring the compliance and regulation of cryptocurrencies.

Institutional Research Reports and Perspectives Aspect: JPMorgan predicts that the US may start cutting interest rates around June next year, with a cumulative reduction of 125 basis points, which will have an impact on the cryptocurrency market. VanEck's analysis believes that after the approval of physically-backed Bitcoin ETFs, there will be a short-term inflow of $2.4 billion, driving up the price of Bitcoin. Vitalik Buterin pointed out that ZK proofs for centralized databases are the key to bringing enterprises onto the chain, looking forward to the future application of blockchain technology. BlackRock considers the approval of physically-backed Bitcoin ETFs as a key priority for the company, indicating its positive attitude towards the cryptocurrency market. Etherscan reports that 95% of the transaction activities on major EVM chains in the past few weeks were for NFTs, reflecting the activity level of the cryptocurrency market. The CEO of Grayscale stated that physically-backed Bitcoin ETFs are expected to open up a $30 trillion market, showing confidence in cryptocurrencies. Michael Saylor believes that physically-backed Bitcoin ETFs are the biggest development on Wall Street in the past 30 years, indicating the mainstreaming of cryptocurrencies. The debtor of FTX has signed a global settlement agreement with the joint official liquidator, ending a two-year legal dispute. K33 Research believes that the approval of physically-backed Bitcoin ETFs in January seems to be "a done deal," which will have a positive impact on the cryptocurrency market. The total number of meetings between ETF applicants and the SEC has reached 24, showing their efforts and expectations for the approval of physically-backed Bitcoin ETFs.

III. Community Interaction and Sharing:

Regarding whether BTC will go to zero, the probability of this happening is very, very small, almost equivalent to an impossible event. Mr. Li used to share the example of the crude oil futures price falling to negative at the beginning of 2020. Even though the probability of such an extreme situation is very small, it is still possible. Whether the price of Bitcoin will go to zero depends on whether Bitcoin can continue to maintain its security, stability, scalability, as well as the consensus and innovation of the community. Currently, Bitcoin is still the leader in the cryptocurrency market, with the largest market value, the widest user base, the strongest network effect, and the highest brand awareness.

According to a study, the possibility of Bitcoin falling to $0 is very small, ranging from 0% to 1.3%. This is because as long as someone is willing to pay a certain price for Bitcoin, it will not go to zero. Also, as long as there are futures contracts, Bitcoin will not go to zero, because there will always be people buying to cover shorts or go long at low prices. Therefore, the likelihood of Bitcoin going to zero is very low, unless extreme situations occur, such as a Bitcoin network attack, previous claims of quantum computers breaking cryptography and hashing power, or a global ban on Bitcoin.

In conclusion, whether Bitcoin will go to zero does not have a definite answer. Everyone has different views and expectations for Bitcoin, so some buy, some sell, some are bullish, and some are bearish. Understanding the principles, risks, opportunities of Bitcoin, as well as one's own risk tolerance, is important. Do not blindly follow the crowd or believe in rumors, and make your own judgments and decisions.

Solana has been hot recently, but security issues should also be noted. SlowMist founder Yu Xian posted on social media, reminding once again that Solana has been very popular recently, and there are also many phishing websites. Some people have suffered losses, as a single signature can almost transfer all the assets in your target wallet address, and that's the nature of Solana.

IV. Important Events and Data and Interpretation by Deepcoin Research Institute:

Regarding the sale of about 50,000 BTC by Bitcoin whales in the past week, worth about $2.2 billion.

Interpretation by Deepcoin Research Institute: This sale occurred when the price of Bitcoin was in a recent range-bound state, indicating that whales are cautious about the short-term outlook for Bitcoin. By the way, a little knowledge sharing: Bitcoin whales refer to individuals or institutions holding a large amount of Bitcoin, generally referring to addresses with 1,000 or more Bitcoins, which have the power to influence market prices. Currently, there are about 2,200 whale addresses, holding a total of about 9 million Bitcoins, accounting for 48% of the total supply.

We speculate that the reasons for the whale's sale may include: the whale may have profited during the recent rise in Bitcoin prices and chose to sell for profit near recent highs. Secondly, in the face of uncertain global economic conditions, whales may choose to reduce their holdings of risky assets such as Bitcoin to mitigate risks.

In terms of market impact, this sale may exert certain short-term pressure on the price of Bitcoin. Whales are important participants in the Bitcoin market, and their actions often affect market sentiment. The sale of whales indicates a decline in market confidence, which may lead to a fall in the price of Bitcoin. In the long run, the movements of whales are still an important signal for the market. On the other hand, the sale of whales also provides an opportunity for other investors to enter the market, stimulating market demand and having an upward impact on the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, the sale of whales does not necessarily mean a bearish market, but rather reflects the dynamic balance of the market.

Regarding the announcement by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission that a US district court has approved the previously announced settlement agreement with Zhao Changpeng and Binance, signing an injunction and civil penalty against them. They will pay $2.85 billion to the CFTC.

Interpretation by Deepcoin Research Institute: Let's briefly introduce the background of this matter. The CFTC accused Binance of providing futures and other derivative trading services to US customers without approval, violating US commodity trading laws. It also accused Binance of failing to conduct anti-money laundering and customer identity verification, as well as failing to protect customer assets. The dust has settled on this lawsuit, and the settlement requires a total payment of $2.85 billion, which has now been approved by a US court.

This news may have several implications for the cryptocurrency industry or market trends:

First, the US is strengthening its regulation of the cryptocurrency market, which may deter non-compliant exchanges and have an impact on market supply and demand, prices, and innovation.

Second, Binance faces compliance and legal risks, or may face investigations from the US and other regions, which may have a negative impact on its reputation, business, and customer stability.

Third, Binance's US customers may face CFTC investigations, need to transfer or sell assets, increase trading costs and risks, reduce investment choices, and seek more compliant and secure exchanges.

Finally, this news may promote compliance in the cryptocurrency industry, which may push the entire industry towards a more regulated direction. We believe that this information will also stabilize market confidence. The settlement agreement helps to boost market confidence in the cryptocurrency industry, as it means that regulatory agencies have taken action and resolved Binance's issues through legal means. This may help alleviate some market participants' concerns about potential legal risks. Therefore, after this news came out in the early hours of last Tuesday, the negative news was exhausted, and the market turned bullish, also showing a "shoe drop" effect. BTC rose sharply, breaking through the downtrend line and reaching a high of around $43,500.

Regarding the disclosure of ETF trading information, since November 21, ARK Invest, the asset management company under Cathie Wood, has sold about $181 million worth of Coinbase stock and $64 million worth of GBTC stock. In the past week, they have sold tens of millions of dollars' worth of shares.

The Deepcoin Research Institute believes that this may reflect a strategic adjustment by ARK Invest in the cryptocurrency market. Coinbase is a major trading platform in the cryptocurrency industry, and GBTC is a trust fund reflecting the performance of Bitcoin. The reduction of their stocks and shares may indicate ARK Invest's cautious attitude towards the future performance of the platform and its bearish expectations for the cryptocurrency market. This behavior may also trigger emotional fluctuations in the market, as Cathie Wood's trading decisions usually attract widespread attention in the market, leading to herd effects. ARK's large-scale reduction of Coinbase and GBTC holdings may be seen by some investors as a bearish signal for the entire cryptocurrency market, which may lead to a market downturn. Of course, we also need to consider that this behavior may be related to ARK Invest's overall strategic planning and portfolio adjustments, perhaps they are seeking better investment opportunities or implementing more flexible asset allocation in their ETFs to cope with market changes and risks, or selling high and buying low to dilute the overall cost of their holdings. Last Thursday, BTC's trend rose and then fell, which is also related to this news. ARK has reduced its holdings of GBTC and Coinbase stocks by about $300 million in the past 30 days, which is still quite substantial. Both of them have a strong correlation with the cryptocurrency market. The disclosure of this data has caused concerns about the cryptocurrency market, leading to a market downturn.

V. Institutional Perspectives and Overseas Views:

Greeks Macro Research released this week's market outlook (December 25th-December 31st): Most major trading markets have entered the Christmas holiday. Although the cryptocurrency market is a 24/7 market, market activity may also decrease. Apart from the stable update of US initial jobless claims data this week, there are almost no major macro events, nor any major events related to cryptocurrencies. Binance is about to end BUSD withdrawals, marking the end of an important stablecoin, but it can be said that it has no impact on the market. This Friday is the annual delivery day, and nearly half of the options positions are facing delivery, undoubtedly releasing a huge amount of margin, which will exert great pressure on IV. Currently, the IV of options after mid-January is still high, facing the greatest pressure, and may face a significant decline before and after delivery. In the cryptocurrency interest rate market, the recent hotspots continue, and the interest rate market is still at a high level, but the demand for high-interest borrowing has decreased.

According to CME's "FedWatch": The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in the 5.25%-5.50% range in February next year is 83.5%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 16.5%. By March next year, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 6.7%, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 78.1%, and the cumulative probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is 15.2%.

Singapore-based QCP Capital wrote in a recent report that the Bitcoin (BTC) spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) to be launched in January is expected to initially face weak demand, which may lead to selling pressure, which may cause short-term fluctuations in Bitcoin, shifting the focus to Ethereum (ETH). QCP wrote, "The actual demand for the Bitcoin spot ETF at the beginning may be lower than market expectations. We expect the upward resistance for Bitcoin to be in the $45,000 to $48,500 range, and it may retract to the $36,000 level before the upward trend resumes."

Analysis company CryptoQuant indicates that in the widely anticipated bull market, a series of catalysts and historical behavior may push Bitcoin to a high of $160,000, and the bull market may start in 2024. The expected demand for Bitcoin from multiple US spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the upcoming halving, and the broader stock market growth in the background of interest rate cuts may push the on-chain price of Bitcoin to at least $50,000 in the short term. We believe that Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market may have a positive year in 2024, mainly due to the following factors: 1. Market valuation cycles, 2. Network activity, 3. Bitcoin halving, 4. Macroeconomic outlook, 5. Bitcoin spot ETF. CryptoQuant analysts stated, "Approval and 6. Stablecoin liquidity continue to grow. On-chain valuations and network indicators indicate that Bitcoin is still in a bull market, with a mid-term target of $54,000, and the highest price of this cycle could reach $160,000."

Matrixport, a digital asset financial services company, stated that as inflation decreases, BTC holders have gained $500 billion in wealth. Predictions indicate that the price will rise in 2024, driven by macro factors and the potential approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF. Expect a decision that will change the game from January 8th to 10th.

A recent report by PwC shows that over the past year, more than 20 countries have passed comprehensive cryptocurrency regulatory frameworks, and this year, more than 40 countries are committed to promoting cryptocurrency-focused regulation and legislation, indicating a more widespread adoption of cryptocurrencies globally. The report states that 42 countries have taken many measures to develop cryptocurrency-focused regulations and legislation, from discussions to passing laws. PwC states that these regulatory and legislative efforts are divided into four key focus areas: stablecoin regulation, travel rule compliance, licensing and listing guidance, and cryptocurrency framework development.

Summary: The overall market was calm this week, with major trading markets entering the Christmas holiday, but the cryptocurrency market remained active. Key events include Binance ending BUSD withdrawals, marking the end of a generation of stablecoins, and the upcoming annual options expiration date, which may release a large amount of margin and put pressure on implied volatility. Market expectations for future interest rates are shown in FedWatch data, while Matrixport predicts a rise in Bitcoin prices in 2024, benefiting from macro factors and the potential approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF. A PwC report shows that over 40 countries globally are promoting cryptocurrency-focused regulation and legislation, emphasizing stablecoins, travel rule compliance, licensing and listing guidance, and cryptocurrency framework development as core areas of regulatory focus. These signs indicate that the market remains vigilant during the holidays, while looking forward to 2024, with continued attention and development expected in the cryptocurrency field.

VI. Top Gainers in the Cryptocurrency Market Last Week and Selection of Community Hot Coins:

In the past week, the performance of altcoins is as shown above. MOVR's performance was particularly significant, achieving nearly four times the profit; ELA's increase was about 2.6 times, while BAKE and DEGO increased by about 1.7 times each; KDA increased by about 110%. In addition, there were other coins with outstanding performance in the gainers list. This week, we should continue to pay attention to potential trading opportunities and be ready to seize market hotspots to ensure timely action.

The following are the selected hot coins discussed in the dc community, for reference only and not as a basis for trading decisions:

op has shown strong upward momentum, reaching a new all-time high, belonging to a strong coin with no visible resistance above, making any future pullback a good entry opportunity. Support below is around $3.1 and $2.5.

Regarding LDO data monitoring, a whale sold 626,487 LDO at an average price of $2.57, exchanging for stablecoins and stETH worth $1.65 million. The whale had bought 974,588 LDO at an average price of $2.34 between December 5th and 10th, 2023 (worth $2.28 million), and started selling for profit after LDO's price surged by 13% today.

Strong coins should be avoided for shorting against the trend. Over the weekend, there was also data mentioning a large buy order for SOL worth $180 million near $90-100. The strong will remain strong, and we have maintained this view for the past two months, as long as SOL runs above the uptrend line, the bullish outlook remains.

Although there is still a week left in the month, the number of active addresses and new addresses on the Solana network has already reached its all-time high. As of now, the number of active addresses on the Solana network in December has exceeded 15.6 million, an increase of about 50% from November. In addition, the number of new addresses on the Solana network in December has also reached 6.8 million, although the number of non-voting transactions on the network in December is slightly lower than in November.

SOL's market value has surpassed BNB, but FTX and Alameda are still the main holders. It is reported that they transferred 13.22 million SOL ($666 million) to exchanges between October 24th and December 14th, 2023. They may currently have 2 million SOL ($192 million) available for liquidation at any time. 40.5 million SOL ($3.99 billion) will be released linearly monthly, mainly in 2025. After FTX went bankrupt (November 11, 2022), SOL surged by 557%, from $17.66 to $116, meaning potential profits for FTX debtors exceed $3 billion. Note: SOL's all-time high was near $260.

Statistical data shows that SOL's trading volume on Upbit has been higher than ETH's for 55 consecutive days, and on MEXC, SOL's trading volume has been higher than ETH's for 15 consecutive days. On Coinbase, SOL's trading volume has been higher than ETH's for 3 days out of the past 13, and on Kraken, SOL's trading volume has been higher than ETH's for 9 days out of the past 14.

apt currently has resistance around $9.42, with medium-term resistance around $11 and $13.6.

near is approaching resistance around $3.8-4, with strong medium to long-term resistance around $5.28 and $6.11.

flow also belongs to strong coins, with current daily resistance around $1.08, $1.15, and $1.26.

rune has been continuously declining on a small timeframe, but when viewed on a larger timeframe, it is within normal fluctuation range. Current support is around $4.86 and $4.55.

stx has short-term support around $1.16-1.19. The daily trend of stx is strong, breaking the resistance near $1.348 from March this year. If it can effectively stay above, short-term resistance is around $1.57, with medium-term resistance around $1.91 and $2.3.

mav has short-term resistance at $0.4358, with medium-term resistance around $0.585.

algo has short-term resistance at $0.223 and $0.24, with medium-term resistance around $0.3.

avax has short-term resistance around recent high of $45.33, with medium-term resistance around $53.

VII. Attention to Negative Data on Project Token Unlocking:

This week, from December 25th to December 31st, ACA, DYDX, 1INCH, YGG, AGIX, X2Y2, OP, and SUI tokens will have a new unlocking. Details are as follows:

ACA will unlock 4.66 million tokens (about $50.5 thousand) on December 25th at 08:00, accounting for 0.53% of the circulating supply.

DYDX will unlock about 575 thousand tokens (about $1.81 million) on December 26th at 23:00, accounting for 0.21% of the circulating supply.

1inch token 1INCH will unlock about 64 thousand tokens (about $26.7 thousand) on December 27th at 20:00, accounting for 0.01% of the circulating supply.

Yield Guild Games token YGG will unlock 16.69 million tokens (about $7.15 million) on December 27th at 22:00, accounting for 5.94% of the circulating supply.

AGIX will unlock 9.25 million tokens (about $3.26 million) on December 28th at 08:00, accounting for 0.74% of the circulating supply.

X2Y2 token X2Y2 will unlock 37.5 million tokens (about $45.9 thousand) on December 30th at 10:55, accounting for 9.94% of the circulating supply.

OP will unlock 24.16 million tokens (about $79.97 million) on December 30th at 12:00, accounting for 2.65% of the circulating supply.

SUI will unlock 4 million tokens (about $2.92 million) on December 31st at 08:00, accounting for 0.39% of the circulating supply.

This week, pay attention to the negative effects of these tokens due to unlocking, avoid spot trading, and seek short opportunities in contracts. Among them, X2Y2 has a large unlocking scale, so pay close attention.

VIII. Top Gainers in the Cryptocurrency Market Concept Sectors Last Week:

In the past week, various concept sectors showed different degrees of gains and losses. In terms of percentage change, the leading sectors in the past seven days include KSM Crowdloan (Kusama) with a high increase of 66.68%, AlamedaResearch (SBF) investment up by 38.36%, Polkadot ecosystem up by 33.40%, and Polkadot Crowdloan (DOT) up by 30.30%. Sectors like Rollup also showed significant upward trends. We should pay attention to the sectors to which the above-mentioned outstanding coins belong, in order to capture potential rotational speculative trends.

IX. Global Market Macro Analysis Overview:

Last week, global stock markets showed different trends. The three major US stock indexes recorded eight consecutive weekly gains, reflecting the market's optimistic expectations for the US economic recovery and corporate profits, as well as adaptability to the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. Hong Kong and A-shares were affected by a series of regulatory policies and lower-than-expected economic data in China, resulting in significant declines and low market sentiment, with continuous net outflows of northbound funds. In terms of institutions, Cathie Wood revealed her latest list of heavily invested stocks, showing her optimism for the cryptocurrency and artificial intelligence sectors. Forbes released the list of the top 10 billionaires with the highest wealth growth in 2023, with Elon Musk gaining $108.4 billion and ranking first, mainly due to the rebound in Tesla's stock price and the surge in SpaceX's valuation. The detailed descriptions of various markets are as follows:

Due to the US holiday, the US stock market was closed on December 25th for one day. Last week, the three major US stock indexes recorded eight consecutive weekly gains, showing strength and reflecting the market's optimistic expectations for the US economic recovery and corporate profits. The S&P 500 index rose by 0.75%, the Nasdaq Composite Index rose by 1.21%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 0.22%. In the tech sector, Google, Meta, and Amazon showed mixed performance, while Apple fell by 2.01%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index fell by 1.33%, with Netease and Tencent ADR falling by 14.83% and 9.01% respectively.

Core PCE year-on-year growth in November was 3.2%, slightly higher than expected, reinforcing the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve next year. In terms of global assets, WTI crude oil futures fell by 0.45% to $73.56 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures fell by 0.79% to $79.07 per barrel. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury rose by 0.129% to close at 3.895%, and the VIX panic index fell by 4.54%. Gold rose by over $20 on positive news.

In the Hong Kong stock market, the Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 6.2%, the MSCI China Index, the Hang Seng Index, and the National Index fell by 4.0%, 3.7%, and 2.7% respectively. Media, healthcare, and real estate were the leading decliners, while energy, transportation, and materials sectors rose.

In the A-share market, there was continued volatile adjustment last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.9%, the CSI 300 falling slightly by 0.1%, the ChiNext Index falling by 1.2%, and the STAR 50 Index falling by 0.5%. Market sentiment was low, with a net outflow of 2.24 billion yuan in northbound funds. In terms of sectors, coal, food and beverage, and home appliances performed well, the photovoltaic sector rebounded slightly, while media, computers, finance, retail, and real estate performed poorly.

In terms of institutions, ARK Invest's asset management company sold Coinbase and GBTC stocks, with Coinbase becoming ARK's largest heavily invested stock. Forbes released the list of the top 10 billionaires with the highest wealth growth in 2023, with Elon Musk leading with a growth of $108.4 billion, and tech billionaires performing well in the AI boom.

The impact logic of the macro market is that the market's expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve were reinforced in the case of slightly higher-than-expected inflation, and global assets showed relatively stable performance. However, the Hong Kong stock market was under pressure and fell, while the A-share market continued to fluctuate in low market sentiment. Tech stocks remain the focus of the market, and institutional movements in the cryptocurrency industry have also attracted attention. Overall, the market showed some stability before the holiday, but it is still necessary to closely monitor global macroeconomics, inflation, and policy changes.

X. Future Judgment:

BTC experienced a significant surge in 2023, rising from below $16,000 at the beginning of the year to $44,700 in early December, setting a new high for the period. However, it has been oscillating for nearly half a month, staying below the December high, rebounding after two pullbacks to around $40,200, but without reaching a new high, and is under pressure around $44,400.

Overall, there hasn't been much change in the technical position. Looking at the larger timeframe, if it breaks through $44,700 in the future, the medium to long-term resistance in the later period will be around $48,190. If it fails to break through this time and returns to oscillation, or even falls below the pivot point near $41,810, it is likely to test around $40,200 again. The strong support on the daily timeframe still refers to the uptrend line, which has now moved up to around $38,550, and will gradually move up over time. The comprehensive judgment will depend on the contact position of future candlesticks and trend lines.

There was narrow range oscillation over the weekend, and a slight decline only appeared in the early morning on Monday, possibly related to European and American traders being on holiday for Christmas, with reduced volatility and gradually decreasing trading volume. Short-term support below is around $42,500 and $41,810, and further down is the support area around $40,220-40,545, where it tested twice before. If trading with an oscillation mindset, buying near the lower edge and selling near the upper edge can be considered.

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Deepcoin Research Institute

December 25, 2023

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