Master Ye talks about hot topics:
Powell continues to speak out. This time, although he stated that interest rates have entered a restrictive range, he still bluntly stated that it is still too early to consider cutting interest rates, and further tightening may be necessary. However, such remarks are indeed at odds with the current market situation. Last Friday, the three major U.S. stock indexes all rose, indicating that the market is not afraid of Powell's remarks.
Even Nick, known as the "voice of the Federal Reserve," has come out to say that the Fed's rate hikes may have ended, but Fed officials are still stubborn. In addition, U.S. bond yields have also rapidly declined. The current focus of the bond market is no longer whether to cut interest rates, but when and by how much. The latest forecast from CME also confirms this. There is no problem with keeping interest rates unchanged in December, and the expectation of a rate cut has emerged from January.
The probability of a rate cut in January has risen to 12%, and the probability of a rate cut in March has exceeded 62%. This probability was not expected until May before last Friday, and now it is likely to be the first rate cut in March, followed by another in May, with a total rate cut of 125-150 basis points for the year. If next year really unfolds as expected, the market is estimated to go crazy.
The market has risen for three consecutive days, breaking through the 40,000 mark directly, and today it surged above 42,000. Ethereum also rose to 2273, undoubtedly igniting the current cryptocurrency market. Moreover, there is no need to consider macroeconomic factors anymore; the market is following a completely independent trend.
From my personal perspective on this market trend, the most direct reason is undoubtedly everyone's expectations for spot ETFs. It is not an exaggeration to say that the approval of ETFs will lead to hundreds of billions of dollars entering the cryptocurrency market. This surge is also the result of institutional and retail investors working together to buy. Institutions including BlackRock and Fidelity have demand for positions because they want to manipulate the market. MicroStrategy is probably their front man, and Cathie Wood's ARK Invest has also accumulated a large amount of GBTC. Even a few days ago, they had to take profit and sell off because they exceeded their position limit. In addition, many smaller institutional research departments already firmly believe that the approval of ETFs will provide an opportunity for the cryptocurrency market to take off, so there is also a great need for positioning.
In addition to the expectation of spot ETFs, there is another possible reason for the rise in Bitcoin. Judges in the United States have not given regulatory agencies the authority to regulate, and these regulatory agencies have begun to reach into the cryptocurrency industry. From the judge's perspective, this is not recognized, so this has also to some extent increased confidence in the market. Of course, it is not meaningful to analyze why the market is rising now. We do not need reasons; we just need to enjoy this celebration.
Master Ye's Trend Analysis:
After breaking through 38,000, the market has been soaring, and there are no signs of weakness at the moment. However, judging from the cycle, the higher the rebound, the greater the risk. The biggest resistance at the daily level is between 45,000 and 48,000, so everyone needs to pay more attention to the risk. Of course, this is an early judgment based on the rebound cycle. The candlestick chart has not fully reflected it yet. I will also remind everyone in the video as soon as the candlestick chart reflects it.
Master Ye's Short-term Pre-set Orders for December 5th
BTC Trading Suggestions:
Long near 41,400-41,600, stop loss at 300, target 42,200-42,500
ETH Trading Suggestions:
Long near 2,210-2,230, stop loss at 30, target 2,280-2,300
More strategies can be added to live trading
Candlesticks are king, trends are emperor. I am Master Ye Chen, focusing on BTC and ETH spot and contract trading for many years. There is no 100% method, only 100% following the trend. I update macro analysis articles and technical analysis review videos daily across the web.
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