Preface: Investment involves risks, please proceed with caution.
Article review takes time, and there may be delays in publication. The article is for reference only. Welcome to read!
Time of writing: 15:10, November 28th, Beijing time
Market Information
- Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of India: Network security and resilience are also key issues for CBDC to be more trustworthy;
- Governor of the Monetary Authority of Singapore: The future monetary system will be composed of CBDC, tokenized bank liabilities, and "well-regulated" stablecoins;
- Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong: Fraud in virtual asset trading platforms does not indicate significant regulatory deficiencies;
- US judge says CZ cannot return to the UAE before next year's verdict;
- Governor of the Bank of Italy calls for the issuance of digital euro;
Market Review
Yesterday, it was mentioned in the article that Bitcoin and Ethereum still have room for further decline. The expected range for Bitcoin's decline is 36,700-36,200. The lowest point of Bitcoin's decline yesterday was 36,709, reaching the target range. After the article was published, the highest point of the pullback yesterday was 37,444, and friends who entered near 37,500 could also benefit from the decline. Ethereum's decline last night was at 1984, also reaching our predicted range of 2005-1975. Those who followed this decline and exited near 2130, congratulations on the profit. The profit from Ethereum was approximately 130 points, and for Bitcoin, those who entered mid-way gained 700 points. This short-term decline touched the target range, and it is now waiting to establish long positions near the short-term support after the appearance of a shadow line.
Market Analysis
BTC:
Looking at the 4-hour chart, the decline is close to the support of the short-term uptrend line. Once the short positions reach the previous target range, it is advisable to exit. In the future, it is just a matter of waiting for the short-term support to be reached and then opening long positions after the appearance of a shadow line. The short-term support level is near 36,200, and there may be another small decline within the day, but it is not worth capturing. As long as the market reaches the target range, there will be an opportunity for a turnaround. For Bitcoin, it is only necessary to wait near 36,200 to establish long positions. The chance of breaking the short-term low point of 35,610 is not very high, but after establishing positions near 36,200, it is still important to be cautious. The expected target range for the short-term rebound is 37,600-37,950, and after reaching this range, it is advisable to look at breaking through 38,436. Manage your own entry opportunities and control risks for short-term trading.
ETH:
Looking at the 4-hour chart, Ethereum's trend is similar to Bitcoin's. The decline has reached the target range, but has not yet fully reached it. The strong short-term support for Ethereum's decline is near 1975, and last night's lowest point was 1984, which is very close. This point is also the support of the short-term uptrend line. In the short term, the market has been continuously rising, with higher highs and higher lows. On a larger scale, the bullish trend has not been broken. This pullback is only on a small scale. Once the pullback is complete, a rebound will follow. The subsequent rebound will require attention to breaking through the short-term high point of 2133, which will then reach the next high point, estimated to be near 2210. However, that is still far away. In the short term, focus on the range of 2075-2100, and after reaching this range, look at breaking through 2133. Pay attention to establishing positions near 1975, and it is best to have a shadow line appear. Manage your own entry opportunities and control risks for short-term trading.
USTC, LUNC:
Recently, USTC has surged, with some people making big profits in the market, while others have suffered losses. LUNC has also been quite active in the past few days. Why didn't we mention these two currencies to everyone at the first time? Those who have been following me for a long time know that I personally do not engage in such speculative activities. Here, I will briefly explain the connection between these two currencies and why there has been a rebound. The origin of the event is that on November 21, Dfunk, a governance member of Terra Classic, posted a forum post on the Terra Classic forum about reactivating the Terra market module and gradually readjusting USTC to be pegged to the US dollar. At that time, there was not such a strong rebound. Later, when the slow rise began, it was found that things were not so simple. In the proposal on the Terra Classic governance forum, the main content was to gradually restore the anchoring of LUNC to USTC by reactivating the market module. Currently, the proposal has not officially started voting and is still in the discussion stage. However, LUNC has also rebounded along with USTC. However, the community is uncertain about the sharp rise in USTC's price and whether it can be re-anchored. A researcher from the Huobi Incubator wrote that this proposal does not make sense. The rise of USTC will create arbitrage opportunities, leading to a decline in LUNC, which is equivalent to the rise of USTC being negative for LUNC. This is somewhat unreasonable, unless there is a market maker controlling the situation, or the market value of LUNC is much higher than that of USTC, so basically it doesn't make sense. This is the connection between USTC and LUNC. From the current situation, the surge seems to have paused. Congratulations to those who made money earlier. For those who have not entered yet, be cautious. Personally, I think if you didn't enter the market at the right time during the hype, don't rush in now and end up losing. Manage your own entry opportunities and control risks.
In summary:
Wait for Bitcoin and Ethereum to reach the bottom before establishing positions in the short term. Be cautious in establishing positions for USTC and LUNC.
The article is time-sensitive, be aware of the risks, and the above is only personal advice, for reference only!
Follow the public account "Coin War God" to discuss the market together.
"I'm trapped, I'm going to be liquidated, I'm losing so much…" Every time a one-way movement occurs, you always hear such voices.
As the saying goes: A crying child has milk to drink. The key is, I'm not a "wet nurse", and I don't have a remote control to make the market turn 180 degrees as you wish.
Everywhere there are "followers", hoping someone will lead their business, and traders hoping to break even. There is no such thing as position management, because in the concept of being a "leek", position management is not necessary. The thought in their minds is: I'm going all in. Basically, trading relies on instinctive reactions. I don't know if money comes from a strong wind, but if things continue like this, it will definitely be blown away by a strong wind.
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