“Reading the trend is as clear as reading one's own palm lines, and as natural as watching flowers bloom!”
BTC's trend is just as predicted in the article on Friday the 24th, with a three-buy breakout on the 30-minute level pushing it to a new high as expected, reaching a new high of 38414 late that night. I have mentioned in previous articles multiple times that whether a new high can be reached depends on whether a three-buy breakout occurs on the 30-minute level, and this has been confirmed. After breaking the new high, I have repeatedly advised reducing spot positions and long positions, and on Saturday morning, I suggested shorting at 37850 on a 5-minute two-sell for a profit, with the price dropping to 37150 in the early hours of yesterday, profiting from both long and short positions!
As for the current situation of the market, after breaking the new high, the four-hour three-buy has turned into a potential one-sell. When the selling point appears, the main rhythm is to reduce spot positions and short at high levels. Any disruption in the rhythm will inevitably lead to losses. In simpler terms, chasing after a high when a selling point appears will inevitably fall into the trap set by the bulls!
Yesterday, a friend asked me, "Senior, didn't you always advise against shorting before?" I said, "circumstances change, previously advising against shorting was because the price of the cryptocurrency had not reached a new high and was still on an upward trend. However, when the price has broken the new high and a selling point appears due to divergence, there has been a clear change in the balance of power between long and short positions. Therefore, the mindset of long and short positions must be switched in a timely manner, and not be rigid."
Let's first look at the four-hour chart. The logic of reducing positions after breaking the new high comes from the structure. From the chart, it is obvious that after breaking the new high, there is a divergence between line segments, and there is a potential four-hour level selling point with divergence in both MACD and green bars. A new high or low often indicates a turning point in the market, which is a trap set by either the bulls or the bears.
The current situation is the transition from a four-hour three-buy to a one-sell, but it is still a potential one-sell and has not been confirmed yet. The confirmation of the selling point requires the appearance of a penultimate two-sell or similar within the line segment. Therefore, the current operation level is all below the four-hour level, corresponding to the 30-minute level trend type, and the strategy is to follow the growth and evolution of the 30-minute level trend type.
Once the four-hour selling point appears, the price of the cryptocurrency could completely fall from the upper range of the central axis to the lower range, so chasing after a high without a three-buy breakout above the central axis is a foolish act!
Now let's look at the 30-minute chart. The chaotic trend on the 30-minute level can be divided by the same level to determine the trend. The current 30-minute level trend, starting from 34800, has transitioned from a three-buy to a one-sell, with a high probability of ending the upward trend and moving towards a downward trend (green arrow). Once a 30-minute two-sell appears, it will be the best opportunity for shorting, targeting the 30-minute downward trend.
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