Chen Bin's Analysis: Bitcoin and Ethereum experienced a downturn on 11.22, with a large daily decline breaking through the midline, indicating a continued bearish trend!
Investment is like a practice. When you are successful, you can enjoy the prosperity, and when you face difficulties, you may end up in destitution. However, the past journey cannot be retraced. Even if the path ahead seems impassable, one must persevere and remain resolute. Drawing strength from the past, one can weather any storm, be it calm or tempestuous.
On Tuesday, a sudden storm-like market emerged. After reaching a high point of 37700, Bitcoin did not continue to rise but instead steadily declined, forming a typical inverted "V" pattern. Despite rebounding to 37500 in the early morning due to various news from Binance, it ultimately led to a bearish trend. I have emphasized this in my recent articles and consistently advocated for short positions above 37500, as seen in my previous articles "Chen Bin's Analysis: 11.20 Bitcoin and Ethereum Rebound, Firmly Bearish!" and "Chen Bin's Analysis: 11.21 Bitcoin Struggles to Surpass 38000, Firmly Bearish for a Major Pullback!" These articles perfectly interpret this recent downturn.
Why did the strong rebound from the past two days suddenly turn bearish on Monday and Tuesday, with 38000 as the turning point? This is mainly because the rapid rebound after a sharp decline did not reach a higher point. The slow decline and subsequent retracement led to a misconception that the market was suitable for long positions. However, this line of thinking, adopted by 80% of the market, is fundamentally flawed. Yesterday, after initiating short positions at 37500 and reaching 36300, the rebound in the U.S. session arranged consecutive short positions at 37200, 37000, and 37400, with 37600 as the defensive point. Ultimately, the target of 35800 was reached. As I mentioned yesterday, while most people in the market were expecting a continued rise and breakthroughs at 40000 and 42000, I believe it is necessary to abandon the pursuit of long positions at this stage. There is no reason for me to chase after the slight rebound in the bull market and strive for new highs. The main trend now is to pull back and take short positions. Regardless of the opposition and disagreement, the more opposition there is, the more one must persist. What remains does not belong to you or me; let the profits and risks be left to those who missed the opportunity.
The rebound on Sunday and Monday morning could not be sustained, and this rebound was in vain. Both the high-level consolidation and the rebound were designed to lure long positions, which will directly impact the future upward cycle of the bull market. From a weekly perspective, this morning's barefoot large bearish candle directly broke through the weekly MA5 position, and the daily chart also broke through the midline. Of course, the price once again hit the support near 35500 without breaking through, and is now experiencing a slight rebound.
However, it is important to note that regardless of the future high points, it is crucial to distinguish between long and short positions in the short term. Just like the breakthrough of 36850 on Monday morning, which indicated an upward rebound, yesterday's market used 37800 as a resistance level to measure long and short positions. If the market had done a long position retracement yesterday, it would have been very difficult, but the breakthrough avoided this phenomenon. Today is the same.
The pressure level today is easy to find, and the range is not large. The reversal point is at 36300, and the last high point before the recent decline was at 37180, which is relatively far away. The rebound in the morning mainly touched the key support near 35500 after a rapid decline, followed by a rebound. However, this direct rebound must be carefully monitored as it may continue to decline at any time. Take short positions in line with the trend, but the defense must be above 36800. The trend over the next two days is crucial. If it cannot be sustained, it will continue to decline. If it can close above 37000 again, it will explore the bottom and rise to break new highs!
How strong is the temptation of Ethereum's recent rebound, and how severe will the subsequent decline be? The rebound during the day or in the early morning yesterday may have caused many people holding short positions in Ethereum to exit prematurely. I almost got washed out as well. Ultimately, I decided to use 2073 as a defensive point and continue to hold with a short-term target of 1940, which was very accurate. Ethereum's trend seems strong, but it cannot escape the drag caused by Bitcoin's impending pullback. Ethereum did not rise with Bitcoin in the early stages, and now that Bitcoin is about to pull back, many people are still fantasizing about Ethereum catching up. Yesterday's analysis chart also indicated the afternoon pressure on the daily chart of Ethereum. The consecutive rebounds did not break through the high points, and after touching the pressure of the extended line, it experienced a subsequent decline. The rebound last night also fell near 2020, and the short-term support area is still within the range of 1910-1880. However, do not repeatedly increase positions. Calculate the risk-reward ratio and position carefully. In the past week, short positions in Ethereum have been at least directionally correct and profitable. This time frame is fleeting. Yesterday and the day before, I emphasized that a waterfall-like decline adjustment would soon come, and today's decline has arrived as expected!
Personal Operation Plan for November 22nd:
Continue to short the rebound around 36100-36200 in the morning. The short positions near 37500 and 37000 from yesterday and the early morning have successfully reached the target of 35800. The profit-taking for short-term positions has been executed. Lower the stop-loss price for reducing long-term positions to 37000. The short-term target for today is 34800-34500. If achieved, reduce positions. If it falls below, hold at 33800-33000.
Short the rebound of Ethereum at 1960-1965, with a stop-loss at 2000 and a target of 1880-1850.
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