Chen Bin's Point of View: Bitcoin's difficulty in surpassing 38,000 on 11.21 indicates a strong bearish trend below this level!
The direction against the wind is more suitable for flying. I'm not afraid of millions of people blocking me, only afraid of surrendering. On the trading road, there are no smooth sailing and no overnight success. Instead, there will be many ridiculous mistakes and stubborn persistence. Perhaps it is those less than ideal processes that help people remember the discipline of trading. Correcting erroneous thoughts and concepts will reveal that everything once dreamed of will gradually come true for you.
On Monday, Bitcoin saw a rebound in the morning, but still did not break through the previous emphasized high point of 38,000. During the last night's American session, there were several back-and-forth roller-coaster fluctuations, indicating that this rebound was just a feint. As long as the 38,000 level is not broken, the pressure above Bitcoin still exists.
In terms of operation, we still adhere to our previous view, entering short positions at high levels with 38,000 as the pressure point. A short position was arranged in the range of 37,300 to 37,620 yesterday. Although there were two retracements in the range of 36,650 to 36,800, they did not reach the expected target price and the market moved too fast, so the position was not closed. It is recommended to continue to wait for the short position! What needs to be waited for is the breach of the 36,300 weekly MA5 level. This position is not only the support point of the current weekly 5-week line, but also near the low point of the last retracement before the rise on Sunday, the support point after the high retracement last week. Only after this position is breached can the decline accelerate.
At the daily level, Bitcoin has shown multiple clear instances of rising and falling. It is still feasible to enter short positions mainly above 37,300 and 37,500 in the near term. Patiently holding positions can yield good profits. The 5 and 10 moving averages have turned downward, and the MACD has crossed bearishly. The rebound is a lure for long positions. Therefore, in terms of operation, short positions should be entered at high levels. The recent rise in Bitcoin prices has basically come to an end, and there will be a downward adjustment, especially in the short term.
Even if there will be a small upward movement, the space will not be too large. The primary pressure point now lies at the position of the previous high of 38,000. Currently, most people in the market are looking for further breakthroughs to 40,000 and 42,000. I think it is unnecessary to chase after the initial bullish trend. There is no reason for me to go long. Do not chase after new highs just for the sake of a small rebound at the end of the bullish trend! The main trend now is to do a pullback and short the rebound! No matter how many people oppose or disagree now, the more people oppose, the more we should persist. Just like in the first ten months of this year, especially in January, March, and September-October, how many people were mocking and opposing me for only doing long pullbacks? The Pareto principle always applies in this market. As I have always said: when everyone is on one side of the boat, there will definitely be trouble!
Therefore, for today, let's temporarily focus on the breakthrough between 36,800 and 38,000. You can continue to hold the short positions from yesterday. Conservative friends can reduce their positions near 36,800-36,300. Wait for weakness in the Asian-European session, and then add positions during the rebound in the American session.
Regarding Ethereum: The overall market trend remains bearish. Although there was a rebound in prices yesterday, it still relies on the downward pressure line formed by connecting the several high points of the daily line at 2,137, 2,118, and 2,091. In terms of operation, the main focus is still on finding opportunities for short positions. Currently, Ethereum does not consider taking long positions on rebounds, especially for medium to long-term players. In terms of pressure positions, pay attention to the previous high points turning into pressure positions. Another point to consider is the pressure from the moving averages.
Operation suggestions for November 21st:
- I don't know if the short positions in the 37,300-37,600 range of Bitcoin yesterday were closed at 36,800-36,650. Anyway, I didn't close the position! Even if it hasn't been closed, there's no problem with the current price of 37,500. Continue to wait!
Today's suggestion: Continue to enter short positions above 37,500 for Bitcoin. I already notified to continue entering short positions above 37,500 this morning. If you already have short positions, there is no need to add new positions! For those without positions, you can enter short positions above 37,500, around 37,520-37,620, and set a stop loss at 38,150. The short-term target is to first look at 36,500-36,300 and reduce positions, and then temporarily set 35,500-35,000 if it falls through. If there are any changes or other suggestions during the process, I will provide real-time prompts!
- As for Ethereum, the short positions in the range of 2,025-2,040 fell to 1,985 first, then rebounded to 2,068 in the early morning. There's nothing much to say. Continue to hold short positions for Ethereum. Today's suggestion is still to enter short positions at 2,030-2,040, set a stop loss at 2,075, and target 1,940-1,900-1,850.
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