Chen Bin's Point of View: Bitcoin surged and fell back on 11.18, while Ethereum remains weak and is expected to continue to fall!
"Many people once admired your youthful appearance, but who can withstand the changes of time," Li Jian sang the hearts of countless people with this lyric. The joy of the moonlight tribe is different from that of the middle and high-income groups. Don't always advise others to be happy, don't pursue fame and fortune. Happiness is only downward compatible. Wang Sicong can experience the joy of working-class people, while you cannot buy a yacht to enjoy his happiness! When you find that happiness is not optional, that's not a choice, that's drifting aimlessly and living in a muddle. Cheap happiness is like disposable gloves, it can't withstand any turbulence in life.
First, let's talk about Ethereum. The previous high point of 2140 has been a pressure point for seven trading days, and it finally broke downwards. Although there were two days of rebound in the daily line, both of Ethereum's rebounds were filled with fleeing and selling off, followed by a rapid decline. This is what I expected, and I have been telling everyone recently that it's really cool to go short when Ethereum suddenly surges while Bitcoin is not moving! Yesterday, Ethereum rebounded near 1992 and couldn't even touch 2000. Some who wanted to short at 2000 and those waiting to close long positions above 2000 didn't get the chance! After continuously shorting Ethereum, the short positions given at 1988-1992 yesterday evening fell to the target of 1910-1905, which was not surprising at all. I also accurately took profits without going long in this process. I said I wouldn't go long for the time being, even if there was a rebound! Many people who tried to bottom fish are probably a bit confused again. Just imagine, if Ethereum bottom-fished above 2000 and then bottom-fished again on the way down, what is this? Are they all thinking of waiting for Ethereum to make up for the rise? It has been a while, and this situation has occurred many times this year! Ethereum is back near 1900. I won't say how right it is to go short these days, but those who are thinking of going long at these high levels are just trying to make up for the losses from bottom-fishing earlier, and some haven't even made up for the losses and have been caught at the peak. I'm not against going long, there is no right or wrong in this market, it's just that I personally think it's more appropriate to go short at these price levels, what do you think?
Overnight, Bitcoin tested the bottom and rebounded to 36900, but it did not affect the profits of the short positions from yesterday! As of now, after confirming 38000 again the day before yesterday, it continued to fall. From the perspective of the daily closing price, it is very advantageous for the bears. The price has been continuously below the 5 and 10 moving averages, and the moving averages have crossed downwards. The short-term price is under significant pressure. The drop from 38000 is just the beginning, and many people were afraid of the rebound on Wednesday. Those who went long on the rebound thought that going short was a joke, but a rapid decline hit those who chased the rebound!
The high point of the rebound this morning was at 36900, and today we still need to see the pressure at 37200. As I emphasized yesterday, there is no need to rush to go long without breaking through this level. Similarly, I also mentioned the importance of the 35500 support yesterday. Before it fell last night near 36000, I didn't chase the short, but instead suggested reducing some of the short positions! Bitcoin still had a small V-shaped rebound in the early morning, a correction on the 4-hour level, but it did not affect the pace of the pullback. It still needs to go short on the rebound. I also suggested continuing to go short near 36600 in the early morning and this morning.
For Bitcoin on the 1-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are contracting, and the price is still in a high-level oscillation. The short-term range is correcting between 35500-37200. Of course, my view tends to break downwards after the high-level oscillation, and the recent key support is at 35500, which is the position of the daily low point trend line. However, I don't plan to go long at the moment. The short to medium-term direction is still to go short on the rebound at 37200 and 37500 and look for a pullback.
The price fluctuations of Ethereum are still relatively large. After yesterday's rebound, it continued to fall, which is in line with the recent train of thought. The entry points and targets were very accurate. I continue to look for short positions in Ethereum. The rapid rise of Ethereum in the past few days did not continue, and this time it started with a lot of adjustments, leading to two rapid rebounds later, which were just illusions.
Therefore, personally, I still lean towards a bearish market between 35500-37200 for Bitcoin, and for Ethereum, the focus is mainly on shorting at the high points. 20020 is the position of the top and bottom conversion, and it is used as a pressure point to lay out short positions. In the short to medium-term market, looking for a pullback is still the main focus.
Personal trading plan for November 18th:
For Bitcoin, I continue to recommend going short near 36500-36600 in the early morning and this morning. This recommendation remains the same today, with a stop loss at 37220. The short-term target is to first look at the 35600-35200 area to reduce positions, and hold below 34800-34500 if it falls.
For Ethereum, all short positions were closed at a profit yesterday. Today, I recommend going short near 1970 on the rebound, with a stop loss at 2018 and a target of 1900-1850.
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