Chen Bin's Point of View: Bitcoin and Ethereum are falling from their highs, and the adjustment has just begun!

Incomplete knowledge often leads people to give up their faith, while complete knowledge leads people back to faith. Do not fear temporary confusion, only fear giving up halfway. Persistence and diligence are always the qualities closest to achieving dreams!

Regarding Bitcoin, in the past few days, it has been correcting and experiencing significant ups and downs like a roller coaster! Since breaking through 38,000 on November 9th, it has retraced to around 34,600 after 4 days, then the daily chart showed a strong upward trend again, reaching 38,000 but failed to break the new high. Yesterday morning, it retraced from the high point of 38,000 to 35,500, giving people the illusion of a strong upward trend, but often a single daily candlestick can shatter that illusion. Those who shorted mock the longs, the longs mock those who can't profit, and those who can't profit just smile at the losses.

Bitcoin's high-level retreat and weak closing, the daily 5-day moving average has started to turn downwards and crossed below the 10-day moving average. The previous strong trend has officially entered a period of oscillation and correction, and I believe it has started to decline from its peak! The key to this large-scale oscillating market lies in the position and rhythm. If it is intraday trading, try to set the limit as much as possible, and the stop loss can also be reduced. Years of cautious accumulation will result in profits.

During the trading day, after a strong rise yesterday morning, it continued to weaken after reaching the high point of 38,000. The market yesterday can be described as a continuous decline on the hourly chart, with no rebound in between. It dropped to around 35,500 in the early morning. The Bitcoin I mentioned a few days ago, from 38,000 to at least 5,000U, has already completed 50% of the target in one day. Now, looking back at my judgment yesterday, expecting a 5,000-8,000U pullback, do you still think it's unrealistic? A small rebound came in the U.S. session last night, reaching around 36,850, creating the illusion of a rebound. This is a typical market trend of luring longs during the weak downward trend in the Asian and European sessions. After probing, it returned to the low point below 36,000, oscillating back and forth like a roller coaster. The high point of 38,000 has not been breached, and 37,000 has never been stable, which means that the short-term strong bullish trend has entered a period of correction. Currently, 37,200 will still be a key point to measure long and short positions.

That is, until 37,200 is not broken and stabilized, the price is below the daily 5 and 10-day moving averages, and on the 4-hour chart, the 10-day moving average is once again weakening downwards. In the short term, this is an entry point (this morning, it just rebounded to the entry point of shorting at 36,500-36,670). Looking down, the support positions of the weekly 5-week moving average are mainly concentrated in the 37,600-34,500 range. Due to the easing of market risk aversion sentiment, the speculation on spot ETFs has been going on for a long time, and the expectation of the Fed not raising interest rates has been almost digested. Recently, Powell also said that if conditions permit, there may be another rate hike. The upward momentum has also weakened, but it is important to pay attention to whether the last retracement before the last rise is held. Once this position is breached, the upward trend will come to an end.

You can see that this round of rise has been mainly in the form of step-by-step rise, but in the past week, it has entered a large-scale oscillation at high levels. Because of the oscillating rhythm, today's choice is to intercept rather than chase. 35,500 and 34,600 are the structural supports mentioned in the previous market, and the pressures of 37,200 and 38,000 are still effective today. The rebound formed around 36,000 in the morning, but the strength of this rebound is not impressive, so we decisively shorted at 36,500-36,670 during the morning rebound! To continue the downward trend, the bottom reversal position of 35,500 needs to be broken through. The key is still in the European session's trend today. But as of now, when the rebound touches the position near the 4-hour 10-day moving average at 36,500, you can follow the short position first. Once again, see if the support of 35,500-35,200 below is effective. If it breaks through, then look directly below 35,000. After rising for more than a month, from 37,000 to 38,000 to 36,000, persistently pursuing long positions and missing out on short profits, instead being immersed in the illusion of the previous rise.

As for Ethereum, after a slight upward stretch yesterday, it quickly broke through the lower support of the dense trading area. Indeed, Ethereum has its own temperament. When it rises alone and Bitcoin does not move, it feels great to see it rise and then fall comfortably. From a technical perspective, Ethereum is a typical trend of "what goes up must come down." The probability of a retracement adjustment is high today, so in the short term, Ethereum is expected to pull back. The focus below is on the low position of 1910 two days ago, which is also the starting point of the breakthrough of 2300 on the night of November 9th. The daily MA5 rose the day before yesterday, fell through yesterday, held in the Asian session, but fell through in the U.S. session. The short-term rebound pressure for Ethereum is at the 2000 level and 2020. This morning, we also shorted at the 1990 position, so just hold on to the short position!

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