On the news front, Federal Reserve Chairman Mester indicated that it may be necessary to raise interest rates a bit, implying the possibility of another rate hike later this year. Meanwhile, Grayscale believes that the SEC has no reason to reject the conversion of GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust) into a spot ETF, and they will continue to seek approval for a spot ETF. Some analysts have suggested that the next Bitcoin halving will have the largest impact in history, with the Bitcoin price expected to reach $147,843 by August 2025. It can be said that reduction in supply, interest rate cuts, and spot ETFs will form the most basic logic for the bull market in the next two years.

Currently, the short-term key support for Bitcoin is at $25,300, and it is recommended to operate with a strategy of trading in a range-bound manner, continuing to adopt a high-short and low-long trading approach. From a medium to long-term trend perspective, it is now a time to be bold, patient, and have attention to detail.

Is it possible for Ethereum to surpass Bitcoin in the short term?

According to the latest news, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may approve the first Ethereum futures ETF in the United States, with the final deadline expected to be in mid-October or earlier, at which time a decision will be made. The market seems to have underestimated the buying pressure for a spot Bitcoin ETF, and with the launch of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) expected in September and October, Ethereum's performance is expected to surpass Bitcoin. Looking back two years ago, Bitcoin rose by 60% in the three weeks before the launch of the first futures-based ETF, so Ethereum has a good chance. Compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum is a strong relative buying target, with the ETH/BTC trading price close to a 2.5-year low, and there is also a lot of room for upward movement.

In terms of asset management, giants like BlackRock applied for spot products in June of this year and have been followed by many other asset management companies. With these developments, Bitcoin ETFs have received widespread attention. Despite Grayscale's victory in the lawsuit to convert GBTC to an ETF last week, the SEC has delayed its decision on the applications for spot products from companies like BlackRock, causing some market sentiment impact. Bitcoin initially rose to over $28,000, but quickly lost all gains and fell to a six-month low of over $25,000 last Friday afternoon.

Furthermore, the altcoin market has not yet shown a sector-like token market trend, but there are several risk points to be aware of. For example, FTX is about to face a wave of sell-offs, with the company stating that it will sell, pledge, and hedge $3 billion worth of cryptocurrencies for debt repayment, including tokens such as FTT, UNI, HXRO, SUSHI, and FRONT. Although the total amount of these small coins is not large, considering the relatively poor trading volume and depth of the altcoin market, there may be sudden sharp declines, and investors need to remain vigilant.

In summary, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike expectations, the progress of spot Bitcoin ETF applications, the approval prospects for Ethereum, and the dynamics of the altcoin market will all be key factors in future market trends. Investors should carefully assess market risks and develop reasonable investment strategies based on their own circumstances.

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