Pain's antonym is not happiness, but acceptance. We often see loss as the opposite of gain, rather than a part of it. How others perceive you is not important; what's important is how you perceive yourself based on others' attitudes. People need to train themselves to think in reverse. For example, while everyone wants to become rich, we should think about how to become poor.
The more satisfied you are with a decision, the less you need others to help you make it. People tend to flock together with those who share their views and distance themselves from those who have opposing views. Not agreeing with one's views is seen as an "offense." Acceptance is an attitude and a capability, whether it's about trading direction or different lifestyles!
Market Review:
The "Global Asset Pricing Anchor" did not continue to exert its influence. Last Friday, the US stock market struggled to rebound, with the Dow barely halting its three-week decline, marking the largest weekly drop in five months since the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. The Nasdaq fell for the fourth consecutive week, while the S&P almost closed flat, both experiencing three weeks of continuous decline and a decline in August. The Nasdaq set a new record for the longest consecutive weekly decline in seven months, while the S&P set a new record for the longest consecutive weekly decline in nearly six months. Tesla fell by 11% in a week. Chip stocks rebounded during trading, with Nvidia, which experienced a sharp drop the previous week, rebounding by 6% for the entire week.
The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond, the "Global Asset Pricing Anchor," fell back and did not continue to approach its high since 2007, but still rose for four consecutive weeks. The US dollar index hit a new two-month high before falling, but still rose for five consecutive weeks.
Crude oil rebounded for several days but still fell by over 2% for the entire week, marking the first cumulative decline in two months. Gold ended a nine-week decline, temporarily leaving its five-month low, but still marked the largest weekly decline in nearly two months and a four-week decline. After two months of sideways and gradual decline, Bitcoin experienced an accelerated decline in line with the data.
In the weekly chart above, the candlestick closed with a long lower shadow. The closing price was 26188, with the highest price during the week at 29697 and the lowest at 24098, marking a cumulative decline of 10.64% for the entire week! Although last week saw an accelerated decline after two months of sideways and gradual decline, the market did not show excessive strength due to the impact of liquidity and the overall macro environment. The upward trend is still present, and the trend has not been disrupted.
As shown in the weekly chart above, the slightly longer-term trend and cycle remain unchanged, and the bullish outlook has not changed. The closing price last week "coincidentally" closed above the previous sideways range. The trend remains intact.
The above chart shows the daily chart for BTC. After a sharp decline in data, there was no rapid continuation, indicating that the bears were not as strong as expected. The overall market saw two consecutive trading days of oscillation and closed with two doji candles. There are currently no direct signals of stabilization in the market. Short-term traders are expected to continue to confirm the effectiveness of support at this level, and once stability is confirmed, the bulls will embark on the journey again!
Market Outlook:
Previously, we anticipated a strong continuation in the price range around 27700, with a stop loss near 27300, and suggested that spot positions could be entered in batches. For spot positions, it was suggested that any price below 28000 could be entered in batches.
The strategy of setting a stop loss at 100 points above and below 27700 and at 27300 was quickly liquidated after the news that Tether stopped using the stablecoin due to lack of usage. Subsequently, the price once fell to around 24000. However, in a bullish market, the market will not allow the bears to become overly aggressive. The market quickly rallied by 3000 points, returning to around 26900-27000, and then experienced short-term weak oscillations around 26000 over the weekend.
For those who are early risers or more dedicated speculators, it may be possible to enter long positions below 25000 for Bitcoin and even below 1500 for Ethereum. These are excellent opportunities provided by the market. If you have such positions, cherish them, set stop losses, and patiently wait for profits.
Short-term prices have not shown a strong recovery. It is necessary to wait for further signals of stabilization at this level.
Spot traders can continue to buy at the current price near 26000, and any price below 28000 is acceptable for spot positions. The bullish trend remains intact.
For futures contracts, it is necessary to wait for more signals of stabilization in the market before entering long positions. Buy on dips, but where is the dip? 23800 and 25200 are the key prices to watch this week. I believe there is a high probability that the price will not fall below 25000, and 23800 is a major support level in the longer term, providing reassurance to everyone.
This week is bullish. Although the short-term market is weak and there are no signals of stabilization, the bullish trend remains unchanged. Be patient and observe the intraday signals. Prepare to enter the market in real time once short-term stabilization is confirmed!
Buy spot positions freely, be cautious and wait for the right timing for futures contracts!
If there are any changes in the intraday prices, the helmsman will provide real-time updates!
All analysis and judgments are probabilistic predictions. The market carries risks, so speculation should be approached with caution!
All analysis and judgments are probabilistic predictions. The market carries risks, so speculation should be approached with caution!
All analysis and judgments are probabilistic predictions. The market carries risks, so speculation should be approached with caution!
2023.8.21
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