Preface: Investment involves risks, please be cautious in your operations.
Article review takes time, and there may be delays in publication. The article is for reference only, welcome to read!
Time of writing: 17:14, August 2, Beijing time
Market Information
- Less than 8 hours away from LTC's third halving, mining rewards will decrease to 6.25 LTC;
- G20 Chairman India has released opinions on establishing global cryptocurrency regulations;
- Zhao Changpeng attempted to close Binance.US without success and then tried to sell the company;
- TRON founder Justin Sun purchased CRV tokens, with an increase of over 7.6%;
- Breaking news: Grayscale and 4 other companies applied for Ethereum futures ETF, MicroStrategy increased its BTC holdings by $14.4 million;
Market Review
In July, Bitcoin basically experienced a fluctuating market, spending most of the time oscillating around the support level of 29500. At the beginning of the month, we expected a greater chance of a market rally, but on July 24, the market broke the high-level oscillation range and effectively fell below the 29500 support level. At the beginning of July, we also made preparations for Bitcoin. If the decline began, it would reach the range of 27360-26240. Currently, Bitcoin's trend indicates a short-term pullback. The rally did not materialize, so with the pullback, the market in July will pull back before rallying again.
In July, Ethereum initially tested the situation at 2035, with the highest point at 2031. Subsequently, the market retracted and did not effectively break through and stabilize. At the beginning of July, we also warned that if Ethereum failed to stabilize, it would experience a pullback before rallying again. The pullback range will be between 1760-1700. Currently, Ethereum is in the pullback phase. Overall, the trend in July is as expected. In August, it will continue the pullback that was not completed in July before rallying again.
Market Analysis
BTC:
Looking at the daily chart, Bitcoin has been oscillating at high levels for a long time. Breaking below the 29500 support level indicates breaking the low point of the oscillation. After breaking the oscillation range, the market has basically chosen a direction. Since the rally did not materialize, breaking the support level means starting a pullback. It is expected that the market in August will continue to pull back before rallying further. The expected range of this pullback is 27480-26290, which is similar to the downward range we predicted for the start of the pullback in July. Below the pullback is the support of the 200-day moving average. After reaching this support range, the market will rally again. Currently, Bitcoin is still in a bullish trend at a higher level. After the August decline, there is a great opportunity to break through the 31850 level and reach near 34550. After reaching this level, there will be a pullback. The current market is moving relatively slowly. If it can break through to reach 34550 in August, the market will be almost complete, and there is no need to make too many predictions. In summary, the market in August is expected to pull back first and then rise, breaking through 31850 to reach near 34550. Enter the market at your own discretion.
For short-term trading, Bitcoin has a short-term rally, but it has not broken the downtrend. The market will continue to decline in the future. Recommended entry point: short near 29500, stop loss at 29800, target near 28900-28300, or hold long-term to the range of 27480-26290. Control risk for short-term trading, and manage profits and losses on your own.
ETH:
Looking at the daily chart, Ethereum's rally in July did not effectively break through 3035. After reaching this level, it started to pull back. Although the trend is relatively slow, the market is still under some pressure and has started to decline. The range of this decline will be near the 200-day moving average. The market has been running with the 200-day moving average as support. The expected pullback range is between 1780-1712. After reaching this range, Ethereum will slowly rebound. Currently, it is very close, with the lowest point at 1808. There is still some room for a short-term decline. After the decline, there is a high probability of a rebound that will break through the previous high of 2031 and reach a new high near 2185. After breaking through 2146, there will be a chance for a pullback. Overall, Ethereum is also in a strong bullish trend. This pullback is only a small one, and it will continue to rise after the pullback. Enter the market at your own discretion.
For short-term trading, Ethereum rebounded to the vicinity of short-term pressure but did not continue to rise. Unlike Bitcoin, it did not show a long upper shadow, indicating effective short-term pressure. It is recommended to continue shorting for intraday trading. Recommended entry point: short near 1860, stop loss at 1880, target near 1830-1780, or hold to near 1712. Control risk for short-term trading, and manage profits and losses on your own.
In summary:
Bitcoin's overall trend in August will experience a small pullback before rallying.
The article is time-sensitive. Pay attention to the risks. The above is only personal advice and is for reference only!
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The greatest pain in trading is not misjudging the direction, but the right direction being late. The rise and fall of the market is the verification of judgment, and time is the boundary of verification. Short-term traders play within the boundary, while long-term traders often play with the boundary. Probability is not the only indicator for judgment. The most important aspect of probability is the risk-reward ratio. If a single profit is enough to cover multiple losses, then probability becomes less important.
When trading, we are not here to avoid risks, but more importantly, to pursue profits. Excessive self-denial and implication will turn into cowardice. The more you fear, the more it will come. The market will not pity anyone. Blind arrogance is not advisable, but excessive timidity is also frightening.
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